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International Conference on

Recent Trends in Environmental Sustainability

ESCON22/CDMP/01
Climate and land-use change: A century of change in Pakistan’s ecosystem services,
1950- 2050

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Dr. Tariq Aziz*
1 Ecohydrology Research Group, Water Institute and Department of Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
2 Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Correspondence: talicivil03@gmail.com

Abstract
Ecosystem services valuation is an effective approach for analyzing the impacts of land-use
changes on society and the environment. In Pakistan, land-use change has never been
investigated for its effects on overall ecosystem services. Here, the value transfer method was
used to valuate Pakistan's ecosystem services under land use changes from 1950 to 2050. Four
land-use scenarios for year 2050, developed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, are analyzed for ecosystem services values. Between
years 1950 and 2000, the value increased by $87 billion (in USD 2017) due to the construction
of dams and expansion of agricultural areas into the deserts. However, there is a sharp drop
of $70 billion between years 2000 and 2015; all future scenarios for year 2050 except B2—
an eco-friendly scenario— also show a decline (ranging from 12 to 21%) in the value of
ecosystem services for year 2015, due to decreased open water, forest, and agricultural areas.
The B2 scenario, depicting compact urbanization, medium economic growth and decline in
desertification rates, yields a higher value (by ~$8 billion) than that of year 2015. Furthermore,
a separate assessment of the two critical services for the country, climate, and water services,
reveals that the value of climate services continuously decreases for years 2000, 2015 and
2050 in comparison to their value for year 1950 due to shrinking of forest and grassland areas.
On the other hand, the value of water services increases from 1950 to 2000 due to the scaling
up of the irrigation system, but plummets for the 2015 and future land-use scenarios in
response to reduced open water. Yet, per capita values for both services (climate and water)
show a decrease for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 compared to year 1950. These results can
inform land-use planning under climate change for efficient supply of ecosystem services in
Pakistan.
Keyword: Climate; Land use; Ecosystem; Desertification.

Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus

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