Page 14 - IT_June_2020_Classical

BACK TO

BUSINESS

Pandemic could accelerate

uptake of electric vehicles

WHILE DEMAND FOR CONVENTIONALLY FUELLED
VEHICLES ALL BUT DRIED UP THROUGH THE
LOCKDOWN PERIOD, ORDERS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES
REMAINED STRONG, AND INDUSTRY COMMENTATORS
BELIEVE WE MAY HAVE REACHED A TIPPING POINT
ensationalist headlines through April and May, with retailers only latterly in
April and May have focused on May allowed to begin sales using ‘click and
making comparisons of vehicle collect’ services.
Ssales with those months in previous Still, while there is little of consequence
years. But it is surely meaningless to reflect to be gleaned from the absolute numbers of
on the fact that the 163,477 registrations in registrations by fuel type in May, and with
May marked the lowest since 1952. Given market share figures for the month also not
the exceptional circumstances, there is no representative of the true picture given the
basis for comparison. longer lead times in the delivery of EVs, it is
What the 89% fall in new car sales interesting to look at the year-on-year trends
reflects is that both the manufacturers and for the first five months. There appears to alternatively fuelled vehicles through the credit mandates, China is set to remain
the retailers were closed through most of have been a surge in enthusiasm for first five months of 2020. Even allowing the market leader with a 48.3% share.
for back-order deliveries of the Tesla But Europe is expected to have the
Model 3, registrations of BEVs have highest year-on-year growth of over
increased significantly, and only HEVs 10%; availability of models, reduced
have seen a reduction in registrations. delivery times and compliance push are
As the automotive market recovers, major growth factors in the EU.”
it is predicted to experience healthy However, he acknowledged that
growth in EV sales, according to new Covid-19 uncertainty will play its part,
analysis from Frost & Sullivan. In an and Frost & Sullivan has modelled three
optimistic scenario, EVs are forecast to different scenarios – gradual contain-
grow by and estimated 8.6% year-on- ment, severe pandemic and global
year globally in 2020, registering 2.5 emergency – which could impact the
million unit sales if pure battery electric figures for sales by as much as ±9% for
vehicle and plug-in hybrid electric 2020 compared with 2019.
vehicle sales are combined. Even so, the analysis is at odds with
“EV sales will be driven by the that of other sources, with research from
implementation of stringent emission Wood Mackenzie expecting EV sales
norms across countries and global globally to fall some 43% in 2020. It
policies favouring the adoption of cites the coronavirus outbreak, potential
battery electric vehicles (BEVs),” said delays to fleet purchasing due to the
Prajyot Sathe, automotive and lower oil price and a wait-and-see
transportation industry manager at Frost approach to buying new models as all
& Sullivan. contributing to the projected decrease in
“Additionally, non-monetary or tax sales.
incentives are likely to be more attractive In the Wood Mackenzie analysis,
for buyers as countries with the highest China will catch up to 2019 demand by
EV penetration ratio such as Norway November 2020, while Europe will do
and the Netherlands offer these rather so by December. Year-over-year demand
than cash incentives.” in the US is projected to lag 2019
Sathe added: “If BEVs are pushed by demand by 30% by the close of 2020.
OEMs on new energy vehicle (NEV) There seems little doubt, though,
that consumer interest in and
willingness to purchase electric vehicles
is growing. And with automotive
manufacturers facing huge fines in both
the EU and the UK for failing to meet
ever more stringent CO2 targets, they
will certainly be looking to ramp up pro-
duction and sales of electric vehicles
through the remainder of 2020.

14 INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY • May/June 2020