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Meanwhile, China and India are arm, organize and command
rapidly increasinB their oi tlie terrorists. That is almost
consumption because of indus- impossible in the near or
trialization and have the dollars medium terms, particularly as
to pay for it. Together they are the fundamentalists do not
home to 2.5 billion people who hesitate to kill their Muslim
would like to use energy as opponents, as in Algerta,
freely as their Western counter- Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt,
parts. There is so much unfilled Indonesia and Malaysia.
demand that it will rise in abso-
ute terms even if leadin@ edge Oil is the indispensable resour-
conservation technologies are ce because everybody covets it.
put in place. The terrorists want to control it
to @et the money needed to
Some of that rise may be dam- seize political power or to use it
pened by falls in rich countries, as an economic weapon. Those
which have nuclear electricity fighting terrorism prize it becau-
and high technology for energy se it is indispensable for the
conservation. They are also prosperity of people of a
becoming service rather than nations. The US is the world's
bricks and mortar economies. number one oil consumer but
But third world demand wi oil from the Gulf is less impor-
inevitably rise as they industria- tant Tor it than for almost all
lize. They have no choice but oil other rich countries. It imports
since they are denied nuclear only 9 percent of needs and just
electricity because of Western one quarter of those imports
rvars of accidents or misuse to come from the Gulf. The per-
liroduce weapons grade mate- centa@e shares of imports and
rials. Coal-based thermal power the Gulfs share in those
is declining and alternatives mports are much higher for
very costly and the quality of
such as solar and wind ener- almost all other industrialized
reserves is lower. At 25 billion
gies are still too expensive. countries.
barrels, Russia has lar@e reser-
ves but Kuwait alone has twice
as much.
Nor can the Caspian region
come to the rescue, even if
several new pipelines were
built. The lar@est estimate for
Caspian Basin reserves is
about 50 billion barrels, which

is equal to Kuwait's reserves.
But only about 25 billion bar-
rels are accessible and bringing
them to market will be very
slow and expensive.
Iraqi oil might be the only hope
because its reserves, esti
ted at 112 billion barrels, are
easily accessible and high qua-
lity. A U.S.-friendly Iraqi regime
might produce and sell oil
because oiJ affects jobs and
according to Western preferen- seem to want regime change in
prosperity everywhere.
ces, but its installation and sur- Saudi Arabia, unchallenged
Many argue that Mr. Bush trig-
vival is tar from certain. power in Iraq and politica
gered much suffering through
influence as kingmakers in al
an unnecessary invasion for
Although Saudi Arabia proacti- Islamic countries. The US,
illegitimate reasons. Whatever
vely manages supplies to pre- Europe and most non-lslamic
vent high prices, its reasons are countries will never allow that the truth, we cannot turn back
the clock. We have no choice
not altruistic. It does not want to happen.
but to act toqether to help bring
prices to be so high as to make
peace to Iraq. Otherwise, oil
alternative energies profitable Success is possible if moderate
may be turned into a nightmare
enough to be pursued in a bi@ Islam turns the silent majority of being a
way. That would kill the goose Islamic people against the terro- weapon, instead of
gateway to prosperity.
that currently lays the golden rists. But that would mean tur-
eggs Tar Saudis. ning against the fundamentalist
Brij Khindaria
Islamic mullahs who finance,
7.2004 Diva 19