Page 57 - Green Builder Magazine Jan-Feb 2018 Issue

www.greenbuildermedia.com/cognition

Map of Current R bat s a smart thermostat. So are those with
Map of current thermostat rebates
broadband Internet.
But what about undiscovered points of
entry? We call these “market outliers.” Our
experience in the sustainable space helps
us identify new correlations that may not
be on the radar of manufacturers. With
Cognition, we can test these “outliers” to
see if they hold up. For example, we’re
currently tracking cities with the greatest
increase in electricity rates over the past
five years, and areas with the largest annual
heating trends. Are these regions ripe for
smart thermostat adoption?
We’ll be reporting on other Cognition
analyses over the coming months. Let us
The Wild Midwest? The interactive data map from our Cognition dashboard shows that states know if there’s a topic or product category
such as Kansas and Colorado lack any kind of smart thermostat rebates.
you’d like us to investigate with a “deep dive.”
collected by their devices. Other brands thermostats, for example, we scanned mil- If you’re a manufacturer looking for some
must rely on product sales. It’s harder for lions of pieces of data, social media, blogs, customized real-time data, drop us a line.
them to cut prices. articles, news reports and other documents. With Cognition Smart Data, we’re putting
As you can see, without context like this, This data tells us, for example, what con- information to good use. GB
real-time data, the next step in our Cognition sumer sentiment is toward each of the four
analysis, might be useless or misleading. brands in our analysis. It also tracks product For more information : Sara Gutterman,
reviews, notes the geolocation of potential sara.gutterman@greenbuildermedia.com
TRACKING THE KNOWN buyers and hints at “points of entry” for
AND UNKNOWN people interested in this technology. ■ McKinsey & Company, There’s No Place Like
The Holy Grail of data analysis is visual- What’s a point of entry? A related product (a Connected) Home, http://bit.ly/1RuCiFD
ization of consumer behavior as a way to or behavior that correlates with smart ■ Parks Associates, Smart Home Utility
discover evolving trends. With Cognition, thermostat adoption. For example, we’ve Partnership Opportunities: Offering $100 rebate
we accomplish this by combining several found that people who buy home security more than doubles purchase intentions for
online and digital tools. In tracking smart systems are more likely to consider adding smart thermostats, http://bit.ly/2AcD1fa

Confident Incompetence The Payback Principle

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that according to surveys, If price is paramount, shouldn’t a smart thermostat’s payback
Americans THINK they know their thermostats a lot better than period be part of the consumer pitch? We arrived at some
they actually do. For example, a study by Marco Pritoni at the University payback figures by combining different data, starting with
of California, Davis, asked respondents with programmable thermostats each manufacturer’s estimate of potential energy savings:
how they used the programmable features. Average Average
Monthly Product Payoff
“Fourteen percent of the subjects reported that they ‘don’t know where the BRAND Saving Cost Period
settings are,’ and 25 percent answered that they ‘know where the settings Ecobee (23%) $83.62 $111 1.3 months
are but [they] don’t know how to change them,’” Emerson (Sensi) (30%) $108.60 $140 1.3 months
according to the study. “Thus, about 40 percent Nest (10-15%) $43.44 $213 4.9 months
of programmable thermostat users do not Honeywell (16%) $57.92 $160 6.25 months
operate their thermostats as expected by Price points. Payback periods are based on each
the manufacturers.” brand’s internal savings estimates. We applied the
It gets worse: “About one-third of the energy savings estimate to a Massachusetts home
thermostats were in ‘permanent hold’ mode; heated with oil, with a total winter heating bill of
this mode interrupts all the programs and turns the programmable thermostat $2,171, or $362 per month for six months. (Note that if
you include a utility rebate for purchase of the
into a manual thermostat. In addition, 50 percent of the photos of the units in thermostat, payoff period is much shorter.)
hold mode were uploaded by those who claimed to use programmed settings.”
Clearly, something is missing in thermostat messaging and/or product design.

This may be the topic for another Cognition inquiry. January/February 2018 GREEN BUILDER 55

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