Page 44 - The Celestia Project
P. 44
Celestia Chapter 5: Energy Independence
that are not worth the price of admission. Moving Target. Although some electrical products have become
Using renewable energy as an example, every gain in the more efficient, the number of gadgets (and homes) keeps
increasing, so overall electrical usage keeps climbing. And
efficiency of a solar panel must be accompanied by, at the very least, smartphones are not even included in this 2012 chart.
a freeze in the level of consumption of the end user. Even better
would be a “complementary” response. In other words, as solar footage of solar needed to power a home.
cells become twice as efficient, refrigerators match them, using half “At 15 percent efficiency, our square meter captures and delivers
as much electricity. This may require more than a simple market
approach. It may mean mandating limits on energy consumption 0.75 kWh of energy to the house. A typical American home uses
of any appliance, the same way water flow through faucets and 30 kWh of electricity per day, so we’d need 40 square meters of
showers is now controlled. This will require cooperation from panels. This works out to 430 square feet, or about one-sixth the
manufacturers and trade groups, but without it, real progress on typical American house’s roof (the roof area of a two-car garage).”
conservation may be impossible. (from http://tinyurl.com/ckjfr4x)
Is Solar up to the Job? Much of our national power load, of course, comes from outside
the residential housing industry. But his point is a good one. Solar
As we mentioned above, most sources of planetary power are already can easily supply the power needed for most housing.
derived from the sun. Solar cells have their detractors, of course—
not because people don’t like the technology, but simply because Forecasting the Energy Mix
solar is seen as too costly, too limited in power capacity for large-
scale use. These weaknesses, however, are vanishing rapidly in the Most economists, investors and industry groups don’t foresee
face of rapid innovation. Steve Hallett argues that “the American rapid change in the world energy portfolio. Instead, they contend
economy consumes more energy than is fixed from the sun over that various pressures, including population growth, demand for
the entire landmass of the lower forty-eight states.” Whether or not personal vehicles and the booming economies of China, India and
you agree with his math, the equation is likely to change within other “rising” nations, will by necessity lead to continued reliance
a couple of years, if not a few months. Solar cell efficiency is on on oil and coal as primary sources of the world’s energy, at least
a bell curve upward. as far as mid-century.
For example, scientists at the German Fraunhofer Institute for We think the pundits are wrong, for three reasons. First, they’re
Solar Energy Systems just created a solar cell that’s 44.7 percent underestimating the impacts of emerging solar technology,
efficient, far above the average 15 percent efficiency of most as biotech, robotics and micro-engineering converge. Second,
commercially available panels. It’s not mainstream yet, but it they don’t understand the Millennial world view. A culture of
shows where things are going. environmental awareness will soon become a driving force in the
economies of affluent nations, as Millennials come to dominate
Tom Murphy, associate professor of physics at the University the work force. And finally, climate change is likely to deliver
of California, San Diego, says criticism of solar photovoltaics a succession of paradigm-shattering shocks to the status quo in
tends to be overly strident. Even the most common PV panels, he coming decades.
argues, stand up well to most other energy alternatives. A corn
field growing biofuel, for example, has an efficiency of 1.5 percent Any attempt to take a “business-as-usual” approach to the use of
if you look at the actual wattage likely to be produced per square polluting energy sources will create tremendous friction between
foot. The average automobile converts gas to energy at about 25 nations and also among generations. An obvious way to avoid such
percent—no great bragging rights there. And a coal-fired power dystopian scenarios will be to through a rapid, orderly shift to
plant fueling an electric car operates at about 35 percent efficiency. clean, renewable energy sources that do not deplete food and water
supplies or require oversight from large, centralized governments.
Murphy’s analysis includes an assessment of the total square The effort will need to be global, however, not nationalistic and
isolationist. Efforts to control and dominate access to innovation
Getting into are likely to backfire.
Hot Water
Here’s where we think things may be headed over the next century:
Solar hot water systems such
as this self-contained Solaraide
rooftop model from Rheem
are one of the most easily
identifiable “winners” in any
future energy independence
scenario. Even small solar hot water systems typically pay for
themselves in just a few years.
