Page 170 - What Kind of Yemen ?

whose rights have been restricted. So what is the reason for Iran's seek-
ing such a victory in Yemen? First and foremost, it is to annoy Saudi
Arabia, which it regards as a threat and then to establish control over

the Red Sea, one of the main arteries of global oil traffic.
Although the Houthis have been to some extent successful in tak-
ing over the Yemeni state, they appear to lack the strength to maintain
the government. It is in fact almost impossible for them to do that in
the face of a large Saudi backed Sunni opposition.
Saudi Arabia previously regarded Shi'ite popular movements in
Bahrain as a threat to its own security and intervened directly in the

country; there is now a strong possibility of a similar intervention in
Yemen. However, this may lead to al-Qaeda, which is fighting the
Houthis, attracting support from Sunni tribes on the grounds of a
Shi'ite threat. Such a state of affairs could make the situation even more
intractable for both Saudi Arabia and for the USA.
It is obvious that the Sunnis cannot achieve power without taking
the Houthis into consideration. Even though the Houthis claim to be in
control, it will be impossible to impose their authority everywhere in
the country. Yemen's political situation resembles a parliament in

which no party has the majority required to form a government. The
groups are calculating how to establish their own administrations
rather than the interests of the country. In the event that this struggle
turns into a worsening conflict, the Sunnis and Shi'ites in Yemen will
suffer similar harm to those in Syria. In the event that Saudi Arabia and
Iran step up their security expenditures when oil revenues are falling,
the resulting crisis could very well trigger a kind of Arab Spring in

those countries. In that case, the situation in Yemen may end as little
more than a Pyrrhic victory (*).
However, Almighty God commands believers to be united, to
stand as one against denial, to regard and love one another as brothers,
to be compassionate, forgiving and protective of one another and to
avoid any division or fragmentation.
The believers are brothers, so make peace between your brothers

and have fear of God so that hopefully you will gain mercy.
(Surat al-Hujurat, 10)
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