Page 107 - A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis: Read the book then read the market

Fig 10.20 ES E-mini 10 Min Chart

Fig 10.20 is another very popular futures index for scalping traders, the ES E-mini which is a derivative of the S&P 500. However, it is extremely
volatile and of all the indices, is the most manipulated by the big operators, which is what I wanted to show here. In this example we are looking at a
10 minute chart, and here we have a complete daily session, sandwiched between a day either side.

Working from left to right, as the trading session comes to an end we can see the extremely high volume bar in red, standing like a telegraph pole
above all the others. The big operators are clearing out of the market preparing for the following day. This ultra high volume is associated with a
shooting star candle, a sure sign of selling, followed by an up candle with very high volume, which goes nowhere. The big operators are selling into
the market and struggling to hold it at this level. Finally, the session ends with a small doji on average volume.

The following day, the market opens at much the same level as the close of the night before, with a classic trap up move by the big operators, a
wide spread up candle on low to average volume. Compare this volume with that of the up candle of the night before following the shooting star
candle. The price spread is much the same, but the volume is substantially lower.

This is a TRAP up move, and one that was prepared the night before. It is a classic move that happens all the time, particularly at the open of a
session, and you will see this time and time again in the futures markets and the cash markets. The insiders, whether they are the operators or the
market makers, love to trap traders into weak positions, and this is the c thd the ceasiest time to do it, when traders are waiting for the market to
open, eager with anticipation, and jump in making emotional trading decisions, frightened to miss out on a nice move higher or lower. Then the
selling starts, and down it goes! Easy really, and given the chance we would do the same! It goes without saying that volume is the ONLY way to
see these tricks in action – watch out for them and you will see them ALL the time, in every market, and in every time frame.

Finally, and just to prove the point, on the third day on our chart the market opens gapped up, but look at the volume – it's high, and well above the
volume of the previous day, so this is a genuine move, and the big operators are buying into the bullish trend higher.

Moving to yet another platform, a different market and a different type of chart. So far, all the charts we have considered in our volume analysis have
been based on time, but many traders, myself included like to trade tick charts for some markets. If you have never used such charts to trade, then I
would urge you to consider these as part of your trading education, for one simple reason.

When we trade on a time based chart, for example a 15 minute chart, every bar or candle on the chart is created in 15 minutes. By contrast when
we trade on an 80 tick chart, each candle will be created according to the time it takes to complete. In other words, the time taken to build each
candle will depend on the energy and activity in the market. It is, yet another way to consider volume or market activity. A tick on a futures chart
essentially records an order, but that order could be for one contract or a hundred contracts. However, the point with a tick chart is this. If the market
is very active and there is a great deal of buying and selling, let's say after a news announcement, then each 80 tick candle will form very quickly,
perhaps in just a few seconds, as there are hundreds of orders flowing through the market in a very short space of time, each of which is recorded
as a tick.

Therefore if we were watching a tick chart following the release of the NFP data, then the candles would form as though being fired from a machine