Page 20 - 2020-The-Climate-Turning-Point

for faster than linear growth in the future once cost tipping points for manufacturing and ownership have
been reached, our sense is that a non-linear path with a 15-20% target for 2020 is ambitious and achievable.

Costs for EV batteries continue to fall, with most studies seeing $150-300/kwh as the tipping point in their
ability to compete with internal combustion engines . General Motors states it achieved $145/kwh in 2015
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and Tesla believes it will reach $100/kwh by 2020 . Research by Carbon Tracker and Imperial College,
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applying the latest EV battery costs, shows that EVs could become cost competitive by 2020 without subsidy,
driving a faster rate of adoption than is foreseen by either the Bloomberg New Energy Finance New Energy
Outlook or the IEA’s 450 scenario (which is consistent with a 50% chance of limiting warming to 2°C) .
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Prior to 2020, bulk purchasing agreements and lower cost / subsidized consumer vehicles will be needed
to bolster demand and achieve economies of scale. Big developments can already be seen in this area too.
The Chinese Government, for example, aims to have 5 million EVs on the road by 2020 , while 30 US cities
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have asked manufacturers to quote for supplying 114,000 EVs . The automobile industry is stepping up
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to meet demand – with Volkswagen, for example, stating it wants to be the world leader in EVs by 2025 .
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Further momentum would be added if all national and sub-national governments, plus major corporations,
announced their commitment to purchase only zero emissions fleets from 2020 and automobile firms
committed to meet this demand.

Heavy-duty vehicle efficiency standards are 20% higher across all major economies;
transport routes in major cities are operated with zero-emission modes

Ramping up efficiency standards for heavy-duty vehicles will have a significant impact on emissions from
transport. Technology for improving efficiency is there and quick wins can be made through improvements
in aerodynamics and tire design, weight reduction, engine efficiency improvements and hybridization .
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Tighter regulatory standards that force manufacturers and investors to take a longer-term view can make
sure these gains are achieved .
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Longer-term, electric heavy-duty vehicles can replace fossil fuel powered ones. In 2016, Tesla announced
its plan to produce a battery-powered truck, and Mercedes-Benz has already released a prototype of its
“eTruck”, a fully electric heavy-duty model . Take-up is already being incentivized through electrified traffic
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lanes, as underway in Sweden and Germany .
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Incentivizing zero-emission modes is one strategy; another is the outright banning of high-emission modes.
Several cities worldwide have already instated (and more are planning to instate) Low-Emission Zones in
which old and inefficient vehicles are banned. The mayors of Mexico City, Athens, Madrid and Paris have
stated their intention to ban diesel cars completely from their city centers by 2025 .
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Public transport doubles its market share

The current global share of private cars and motorcycles in total passenger transport is around 50%. It
varies significantly between and within countries. In the USA, private transport dominates – accounting
for 90%. In South Korea, the OECD country with lowest share of private transport, it is 40%. In developing
countries, major shifts are underway: India and China increased the share of private transport from 27% and
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10% respectively in 2000 to 35% and 30% in 2010 .
The members of the International Association of Public Transport announced their intention to double the
market share of public transport worldwide by 2025 . Encouraging signs can already be seen and our
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mission is to go even further. Bike-sharing schemes and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems have been growing
quickly in recent years: already 850 cities have bike-sharing schemes encompassing more than a million
bicycles, and 198 cities have BRT systems that carry nearly 33 million passengers every day . Information
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and communication technology, ride-sharing and ride-pooling services are being integrated into the urban
mobility ecosystem in many cities, helping to support the shift .
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Given that the net benefits of enhanced public transit are likely to significantly outweigh the costs in the
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long term , there are good reasons to accelerate momentum by overcoming those barriers that stand in the
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way .
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