Page 15 - World Airnews Magazine January 2021 Edition

NEWS

EMBRAER

IDENTIFIES TRENDS

“The short-term impact of the global It stated Africa was the last world region

pandemic has long-term implications for where coronavirus infections peaked in

EO and president of Embraer com- new aircraft demand,” said Meijer. 2020. Yet, profitability has been elusive for

Cmercial aviati on Arjan Meijer has “Our forecast reflects some of the the region’s airlines even before the pan-

described as ‘historic’ the current aviation trends we’re already seeing - the early demic. IATA estimates African airlines will

situation in the company’s market outlook retirement of older and less efficient post a (US) $2 billion net loss in 2020, which

represents a negative net margin of 30.5%.

report for 2020 published last year. aircraft, a preference for more profit-

“The entire airline industry is being able smaller airplanes to match weaker Airlines now face some degree of resizing
reshaped, and with it, there are huge demand, and the growing importance of and restructuring.

opportunities to re-organise our businesses domestic and regional airline networks in “There is a new opportunity to address

so we can emerge stronger and better pre- the restoration of air service. Aircraft with the persistent problems of low load factors

pared for the cycles to come,” said Meijer. up to 150 seats will be instrumental in due to overcapacity, poor connectivity
stemming from few frequencies, the ab-
He said the question on everyone’s how quickly our industry recovers.”

mind is: when will we get back to 2019 The outlook examined passenger demand sence of nonstop flights to many markets,

and operating inefficiencies from regulato-

demand levels? And as with many coro- for air travel and new aircraft deliveries ry restrictions,” the report stated.

navirus crisis-related discussions, it’s over the next 10 years with special empha-

tempting to focus on getting back to how sis on Embraer’s aircraft up to 150 seats. SELECTED HIGHLIGHTS:

things were. The report identified emerging trends Traffic Growth

“A bigger consideration may be how that will influence growth, factors shaping

things might change for the better. We future airline fleets, and the regions of the • Global passenger traffic (measured in

Revenue Passenger Kilometres - RPKs)
believe that the fallout from the pandemic world that will lead demand in the com- will return to 2019 levels by 2024, yet

signals the beginning of a new industry mercial sector. It identified four remain 19% below Embraer’s previous
cycle, with many unique aspects. main drivers: forecast through the decade, to 2029.

“Unlike the previous one which was guid- • Fleet Rightsizing - a shift to small-

ed by a massive supply of capacity and a er-capacity, more versatile aircraft to • RPKs in Asia Pacific will grow the fast-
est (3.4% annually).
focus on lowest cost-per seat, we foresee a match weaker demand

cycle characterized by versatility, operating • Regionalisation - companies seeking Jet Deliveries

efficiency and profitability,” to protect their supply chains from • 4,420 new jets up to 150 seats will be
“The air travel market will be smaller for external shocks will bring businesses delivered through 2029.

years to come. Consequently, the airline closer, generating new traffic flows • 75% of deliveries will replace ageing

capacity plans of the past will no longer fit. • Passenger Behaviour - preference aircraft, 25% representing market

“During the past few months, the up to for shorter-haul flights and decen- growth.

150-seat aircraft category played a key role tralisation of offices from large urban • The majority will be to airlines in

in the recovery of the airline industry,” centres will require more diverse North America (1,520 units) and Asia

he said. air networks Pacific (1,220).
He said around the world, that seg- • Environment - renewed focus on more Turboprop Deliveries

ment proved its versatility in maintaining efficient, greener aircraft types • 1,080 new turboprops will be deliv-

network connectivity and ramping up • Turning to Africa, the outlook report ered through 2029.

schedules. The up to 100-seat jet segment stated greater collaboration between • The majority will be to airlines in Chi-

is well established. The next cycle will airlines and countries will be key na/Asia Pacific (490 units) and Europe
showcase the importance of the 100 to to unlocking intra-regional market (190).

150-seat category. potential and increasing carrier com- For more details, including regional

New trends, market conditions, and the petitiveness. synopses for North America, Latin Ameri-

advent of new state-of-the-art aircraft with The company estimates 100 150 seater ca, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, China
excellent cost economics will be the cycle’s jets will be delivered – being 80 turbo and Asia/Pacific, and the CIS, download

hallmarks and better prepared for the props and 110 narrowbodies with 650 fleet the 2020 Market Outlook at
cycles to come. in service in Africa in the next decade. www.embraermarketoutlook2020.com Q
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