Page 38 - World Airnews Magazine January 2021 Edition

MANUFACTURER

2021 DELIVERIES IN LINE

WITH 2019 LEVELS

By Jens Flottau, Sean Broderick and Guy Norris

capacity if and when the global grounding Boeing’s current scenario has global

of the type is lifted in the coming weeks. traffic recovering to 2019 levels in about

ine months after the coronavirus “Our analysis continues to demonstrate three years.

Although the US domestic passenger

Npandemic broke out globally, the lack of recovery in global airline traffic market is showing signs of a steady re-

sufficient to support demand for current
Airbus and Boeing are finalising their 2021 production rates,” Agency Partners analyst covery, the slower pace of growth in the

production plans, with adjustments to Sash Tusa wrote in a research note to clients. international air travel sector is weighing

what many see as the ‘new normal’. “The primary uncertainty is the ability of heavily on the company’s widebody plans -

That is meant to define a state that is sus- Airbus to deliver commercial aircraft to its particularly those for the 787.

tainable even as circumstances change dra- customers, with the A230neo family the With production of the 787 due to be con-

matically. But as the pandemic continues standout challenge,” Bernstein Research solidated from mid-2021 onward solely in
and recovery in key markets is slowing or analyst Douglas Harned commented in an South Carolina - at a reduced rate of only six
even reversing with new outbreaks, doubts Airbus-focused release. per month, compared to the current com-
remain that industry players have adjusted Nonetheless, Boeing is keeping to its earlier bined output of 10 per month with Everett,

enough to reflect actual demand. announced plans to slash widebody produc- Washington - the OEM warns that further
Under current plans, Airbus and Boeing tion rates by 50% by 2021, while simultane- downward trimming may be considered.

would deliver around 1,100 aircraft in ously hoping to gradually restore 737 produc- Boeing said it has a “large number” -
2021, with most of the uncertainty centring tion to 31 per month by the start of 2022. believed to be around 50 - of undelivered

on how many of the stored Boeing 737 The exact size and timing of the 737 rate 787s in the inventory, and together with

MAXs will be delivered, how quickly MAX increase will be dictated by the pace of the the slower than expected recovery in inter-
production is ramped up and whether overall traffic recovery and also by Boeing’s national traffic, Smith said the company will

Airbus moves ahead with a rate increase ability to remarket and reconfigure a large “continue to assess the downside risk of

on the A320neo family at some point in the portion of the approximately 450 unde- our production rates going forward.”

second half of 2021. livered aircraft in storage, according to The combined 777/777X rate, which

The two OEMs’ combined output is well company executives. is also slowing from the current five per

below the 1,583 aircraft handed over to “We now expect delivery of about half of month to just two per month in 2021, looks

customers in 2018. But it is roughly in line the aircraft currently in storage by the end likely to remain at this level for some time.

with the 1,150 reached in 2019, the year of the year [2021] and the majority of the Boeing also hints that the target date for
that saw the major impact of the MAX remaining in the following year,” said Boe- entry into service of the 777-9, the first

grounding (starting in March) but not yet ing chief financial officer (CFO) Greg Smith. variant of the 777X family, could also slide

that of COVID-19. An Aviation Week analysis finds that into 2022.

This year, through the end of September, about 60 of the stored aircraft are with- Although the company already an-

Airbus and Boeing delivered a combined out a customer due to cancellations and nounced this year that initial deliveries

439 aircraft, implying that civil aircraft orderbook reshuffling during the model’s would not be in 2021 as originally expect-

production is heading for a relatively steep 19-month grounding. Smith warned that ed, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun suggests that

rise very soon. In addition, 387 delivered the timing of the 737 production rate could be delayed even more.

MAXs will be added to the already available ramp-up profile “continues to be dynamic.” “As with any development programme,

World Airnews | January 2021
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