Page 43 - World Airnews Magazine February Edition 2021

FEATURE FEATURE

slot exemptions to plan accordingly. chain, AI) and sustainable aircraft

• Decarbonisation of the aviation sector technology (hydrogen, hybrid-elec- Key Conclusions &

is now a cornerstone for the industry, trificati on).

with the EU Green Deal a driving force The opportunity to ‘build back better’ in Outlook 2021
for real change. However, regional terms of relooking at the way the system

connectivity must continue to be is financed, regulated and integrated, and • European traffic for the whole of
maintained and increased taxation on how it addresses sustainability remains 2021 is expected to recover to 51%

aviation will not necessarily deliver key to securing the future of aviation. of 2019 levels, with faster recov-
reduced demand. Any future national Methodology & sources: The bulk of data ery expected from the summer

aviation taxation should be used to used in this paper is taken from EURO- onwards.

fund decarbonisation measures, such CONTROL’s unique aviation databases, • More failures can be expected in

as support for increased uptake of notably daily data on the latest network 2021, highlighting the need for

Sustainable Aviation Fuels. traffic situation as well as a range of financial support to the entire

• With regard to air traffic services, other key indicators from the Aviation industry.
past mistakes need to be addressed Intelligence Portal. • Airlines and airports need clarity on

head-on, and the status quo can no In this document, “Europe” should be slot exemptions to plan in 2021.

longer be maintained with regard to understood as the “EUROCONTROL • Decarbonisation funding must be
economic regulation and airspace Network Manager area”, which encom- increased.

management. Reform is essential, passes our 41 Member States and 2 • Regional connectivity must be
and the new Single European Sky Comprehensive Assessment States (see maintained.
proposals currently under consider- our scope here). • Air traffic services reform is urgently

Global flows are all massively down as Figures 7 shows ation by EU bodies presents possible Other sources used are airline losses required to ensure scalable capacity

options to help drive down costs and data from IATA, airport losses data from in the years ahead, with collabora-

2021 OUTLOOK Scenario 1, the most optimistic (Vaccine vaccines having started, it will take time, ensure that there is scalable capacity ACI, and job losses data from Five Aero. tive decision-making between ops

2020 ended with total traffic -55% of 2019, widely, not partially, available for travel- but there should be steady progress by in the years ahead. Decisions must Airline load factors are taken from pub- stakeholders guided by the EURO-

be achieved collaboratively between

licly available company reports.

closing the year with a 7-day daily average lers, or pandemic end, by summer 2021), summer 2021. This will have a positive operational stakeholders (airlines, CONTROL Network Manager.

that stood at 62.4% lower than the same predicts that traffic will only return to 2019 impact on European aviation. And it can be airports and ANSPs) guided by the Any queries on the data in this report • We must continue to innovate and

period in 2019. However, this is far worse levels by 2024. enhanced if action is taken on a number of EUROCONTROL Network Manager. should be sent to our Aviation Intelli- invest in future technological solu-

than the first traffic outlook produced However, despite multiple vaccines on core issues. These include: • We need to continue to innovate gence Unit at aviation.intelligence@ tions in all aviation domains.

in April, which had predicted that traffic or close to market, this looks less realistic: • Vaccines are here now but will take and invest in future technological eurocontrol.int. Q • We cannot miss the opportunity to

would recover by year-end to -20% of 2019 some vaccines remain in the regulatory considerable time to roll out. As per ‘build back better’.

levels. This had been based on the pandem- approval stage, and vaccine rollout is un- the most likely Scenario (no. 2) of solutions in all aviation domains: the article courtesy : https://www.eurocontrol.
Digital European Sky through SESAR,

ic coming under control and did not take likely to be complete across all population EUROCONTROL’s STATFOR Forecast, implementation of Big Data (block- int/publication/what-covid19-did-europe-

into account the un-coordinated responses sectors and countries for quite some time. European traffic in 2021 will still only an-aviation-2020-outlook-2021

by countries as they restored restrictions Least likely, based on current develop- be at 51% of 2019 levels, which will

after the summer, as well as further waves ments, is Scenario 3 (Vaccine not effective: continue to have a devastating impact

of the virus. lingering infection and low passenger con- on the entire industry, where direct

We are currently on course for Scenario fidence), which envisages a much slower European job losses for 2020 are esti-

2 (Vaccine widely, not partially, available recovery with traffic only returning to 2019 mated at 191,000.

for travellers, or pandemic end, by summer levels by 2029. • As a result, substantial failures will
2022), which predicts a return in 2021 to 51% However, even in the most optimistic of occur in 2021, highlighting the need

of 2019 traffic volumes or 5.64 million flights. these scenarios, traffic will only return to close for financial support to the entire

Under this scenario, traffic returns to 92% to 2019 levels in 2024 (92% of 2019), which industry. In 2020, the vast majority of

of 2019 volumes by 2024, or 10.24 million highlights the importance of concentrating State support was allocated to airlines,

flights, with 2019 levels only reached fully efforts, as traffic slowly recovers, on how the typically legacy/scheduled carriers;

by 2026. This factors in likely progressive entire system can be ‘built back better’. State support is needed to support the

vaccine deployment across Europe over the wider aviation value chain, especially
year, but not yet reaching full coverage/ CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOK the airport community.
disappearance of COVID-19. With 2020 behind and the rollout of • Airlines and airports need clarity on
European Aviation: 2020 Headline Impacts
1. €56.2 billion net losses for airlines, airports & ANSPs • 0.9 million flights less in France (-54%)

2. 1.7 billion fewer passengers • 0.8 million flights less in Italy (-60%)

3. Massive negative impacts on European flights: 5. Leading aviation groups down by 53%-67%:

• 5.0 million flights 2020 vs 11.1 million 2019 = annual • Lufthansa Group -67% daily average flights (2020: 1,102

loss of 6.1 million flights flights, 2019: 3,295)

• intra-European traffic 54% down • Ryanair -59% flights (2020: 951, 2019: 2,323)

• Europe-Rest of the World traffic 59% down • Air France-KLM -55% flights (2020: 920, 2019: 2,053)

• low-cost carrier flights 62% down • IAG -65% flights (2020: 825, 2019: 2,342)

• scheduled carrier flights 59% down • Turkish Airlines flights -53% (2020: 626, 2019: 1,331)

4. Markets down by 40%-73%: • easyJet -67% flights (2020: 547, 2019: 1,671)

• 1.3 million flights less in the UK (-61%) 6. 51% of aircraft in Europe grounded at year-end (4,118 of

• 1.2 million flights less in Germany (-56%) 8,048 airframes)

• 1.0 million flights less in Spain (-61%) 7. 191,000 announced direct job losses in Europe
Global flows are all massively down as Figures 8 shows

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