Page 65 - World Airnews Magazine May 2020 Edition

NEWS DIGITAL

THE MAX RETURNS TO A

CHANGED WORLD

Sean Broderick

For most affected airlines, not having five-year run. Under either the Bernstein
their share of more than 800 MAXs - the or Canaccord scenarios, Boeing would
When the next Boeing 737 MAX 387 grounded and another 420 or so built have had to shed hundreds of MAXs from
rolls off the assembly line sometime later by Boeing since the grounding but not its near-term skyline, via cancellations or
this year, it will roll into a very different delivered- was a growth-constraining deferrals, to match supply with demand.
world than when production was paused in burden. Now, it’s a blessing. Customers are already on the job.
mid-January. With passenger traffic unlikely to reach Through the end of March, Boeing’s
Questions about whether customers will 2019’s levels (let alone 2018, the last cal- year-to-date 737 backlog had fallen by 314
want MAXs are being replaced by whether endar year not affected by the constraining aircraft, or 309 more than the total number
they need them, as global demand for MAX groundings) for several years, airlines delivered (while MAX deliveries are on
passenger travel has plummeted and is and lessors must re-work fleet plans on the hold, Boeing is still handing over P-8s and
not expected to come back quickly. Once fly. Less of everything is a good bet. delivered its last two 737NGs, to China
airlines and lessors re-assess their needs, Analysts at Bernstein see Boeing Eastern, in January). On April 17, mega-les-
Boeing will have some work to do, aligning delivering about 2,700 MAXs through sor GECAS cut its MAX commitment by 69
suddenly reduced demand for new aircraft 2024, including 86 this year. The projected aircraft.
with monthly production rates. ramp-up would see Boeing get back to its There are plenty more order book
In the MAX’s case, the model’s troubles previous high-water production mark of adjustments to come.
gave Boeing a head start it didn’t know it 52/month in 2024 (and then jump to 57/ Boeing said it would call workers back
needed. Had the MAX not been grounded year in 2025). to the MAX production line starting April
in March 2019 following two fatal Canaccord Genuity is less optimistic. 20. It plans a long, slow ramp-up that may
accidents, the company’s plan to boost The firm sees about 2,100 MAXs going to not see the first aircraft roll out for a few
production to 57 aircraft/month later in airlines between now and 2025, including months. It has plenty of time to spare.
the year probably would have stayed in just 36 this year. In Canaccord’s scenario, Back in January, when Boeing announced
place. Instead, the grounding and related Boeing’s peak MAX monthly production plans to pause the line, management
production slowdown - Boeing cut its rate during the next five years is about 50/ assumed the largest impediment to
MAX rate to 42/month from 52/month month. ramping up MAX production quickly would
in April 2019- reduced the number of Had Boeing reached 57/month last year be the supply chain’s ability to keep pace.
MAXs heading out to airlines. The January and kept that rate until 2025, it would have Whether customers needed the aircraft
shutdown halted it. produced 3,420 MAXs during the current was a non-issue. Now, it’s the main one. Q

World Airnews | May Extra 2020
— 15 —