Page 82 - World Airnews Magazine May 2020 Edition

COLUMN

EUROPE'S ULTRA-CHEAP

BUDGET FLIGHTS

COULD DISAPPEAR

By Sinéad Baker

s governments around the
Aworld close their borders and
advise against travel, demand has plum-
meted, causing airlines to ground their

entire fleets.
For the first time in a long time planes

are sitting idle on runways and hundreds of

thousands of staff have been furloughed.

International Air Transport Association
director general Alexandre de Juniac, an or-

ganization representing the world's airlines,

has called it the “deepest crisis ever."
The pandemic has left virtually all of the

world's airlines at risk of bankruptcy. Some
have already collapsed.
One analyst said that, even in the sis - and any collapses, or changes to their Buckinghamshire New University, said that
best-case scenario, pre-outbreak levels models, would have huge impacts on the "only very few, maybe a handful of carriers

of demand will not return until at least way people fly. worldwide, have substantial cash reserves."

mid-2021. Warnock-Smith said Europe's prices got
And when that demand does return, the TICKETS COULD BECOME MORE so cheap because there are so many air-
industry will not be the same as before. EXPENSIVE lines: "Supply is higher than demand, which
There's uncertainty about which airlines Then there is the possibility that crisis could has led to a surplus of seats, and that's put

will survive, how many people will want to result in more expensive flights, or changes downward pressure on fares."

fly after a pandemic, and what kind of new to the way flights are run. He said if airlines collapse, and then

precautions airlines may take in future. Andrew Charlton, an independent demand for flights picks up again, "we

John Strickland, an independent air trans- aviation analyst, said the UK airline market might see higher fares because, because
port consultant, has said that one thing is could resemble the US where the top four demand will outweigh the supply." But

for sure, "Aviation is going to be smaller." airlines control more than 80% of the he said that would only be likely for a
And among the things at risk are Europe's market as of 2018. In Europe, the top four "temporary period."
famously cheap flights, which regularly let control 40%. Some European budget airlines have

people fly for the equivalent of just a few "I think what's going to happen is that already collapsed. UK airline Flybe cited

dollars, and for some underpin their entire we get a significantly smaller number of the virus when it collapsed in March,
way of life. airlines, and those airlines will start to be- and Lufthansa shut its budget airline

Liberal aviation restrictions, plus an have a little bit more like the airlines in the Germanwings in April as it restructured,

abundance of airlines competing with each United States behave. In other words: with warning that it will take "years until the
fewer airlines, fares go up."
other - far more than in the US - resulted in worldwide demand for air travel returns
what are often very low prices. This would mean fewer airlines to meet to pre-crisis levels."

"Those markets have grown enormously demand, so those that remain could decide At the end of the day airlines will need

because many people who couldn't afford to, or might have to, increase fares. people to actually want to fly - and for coun-

to travel before have done so whether it But higher fares could put people off fly- tries to want visitors. While budget airlines
is for visiting friends and family going on ing when airlines need travellers the most. can typically tempt people with cheap prices

holiday," Strickland said. Dr. David Warnock-Smith, an air transport during any uncertainty: "There are much

The result is the knock-on adviser and head of aviation at the UK's wider uncertainties: we don't know how

effects of tourism booms and much demand there will be."
people moving to work all over The reason for this could be

the continent. that people have less money as
Among the largest are Irish a result of the wider economic

collapse, and the fear of flying
airline Ryanair and UK air- lingers on after the pandemic. Q

line EasyJet, the biggest and
fourth-biggest airlines in the

world respectively by their num- *Article shortened. Courtesy

ber of routes. https://www.businessinsider.
Both are hurting from the cri- com/

World Airnews | December 2017
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