Page 80 - World Airnews Magazine June 2020 Edition

COLUMN

TO CLIMB, DESCEND OR HOLD

ALTITUDE IN THE MONTHS

AHEAD?

By Eric Tegler

“General aviation activity levels - which

Airlines carry the overwhelming majority can be measured by hours flown and fuel

f you’re even mildly curious about the of passengers in America but they repre- consumption - have historically tracked

Ismall, private aircraft which populate sent fewer annual flight hours (17,861,298) very closely with overall economic activi-

our skies - what the public, government than GA aircraft (25,212,000) and a smaller ty. During the last major correction arising
proportion of overall aircraft movements.

and industry call General Aviation - then from the late 2000’s financial crisis, such
“There are only about 10,000 airliners
you’ve likely heard of “Oshkosh.” in the country and there are over 200,000 measures dropped by more than 25 per-
The Wisconsin city is synonymous with general aviation airplanes,” said Tom cent from peak to trough.”

the annual week-long AirVenture airshow Haines, senior vice president of media and RELIEF AND THE WILL TO FLY
convention held by the Experimental communications for the Aircraft Pilots and While the American economy has undeni-

Aircraft Association (EAA). Oshkosh draws Owners Association (AOPA). ably slowed, there is nothing fundamentally

10,000 aircraft and 600,000 visitors from Haines said that currently, there are different about GA today than five months

around the world each July. about 30 percent fewer GA operations than ago. The planes, skills, businesses and

But on May 1 the EAA announced the normal. The slowdown is evident at flight passion remain in place.

cancellation of the AirVenture convention schools, many of which have suspended The FAA and the federal government

due to fallout from the Coronavirus pan- training following state guidelines. It’s sim- recognised the need to help the sector
demic, breaking a 68 year run and signalling ply not possible to socially distance in the early. As part of the CARES Act, (US)

the loss of an estimated (US) $170 million in cockpit of a Cessna 172 or Diamond DA40 $100 million in grant aid was earmarked

economic activity to a five-county region, training aircraft. for GA airports to sustain the places

according to the Wisconsin State Journal. The health of the aerospace companies from which small aircraft fly and the
The announcement puts a real and sym- that build GA aircraft, parts, avionics people who work at them. The grants are
bolic stamp on the struggles that general and more is an issue, one that EAA has meant to help the airports stay afloat for
aviation is facing and could be considered heard about from the many vendors who three to four months until the economy

an indicator of its potential to stay aloft or display their wares at AirVenture annually begins to restart. The help is vital Tom

spiral down. Pelton said. Haines affirmed.
“The decision to cancel AirVenture was “They’ve had some pretty sobering Federal aid has so far helped prevent

difficult,” EAA CEO Jack J. Pelton said. stories about the immediate impact of parts/supply shortages though AOPA
“It was a very tough decision. We really shutdowns on their businesses. We have a admits this may also be due to stalled
have to get cranked up in May [for AirVen- serious issue with a lot of the smaller com- demand. Like others Tom Haines can’t help
ture] and our stay-at-home order is still all panies who aren’t as well capitalized. How but compare the coronavirus shutdown

the way through Memorial Day.” long can they keep their hatches battened with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

The need to have infrastructure in place and still be in business?” At the time, one-in-five business air-

to support the massive gathering joined The broader economy will weigh on GA planes were for sale on the used market.
uncertainties about social distancing and pilots, aircraft owners, and students as In early May that number is in the single

the possibilities of a phased re-opening well. Looking across the aviation sector, digits percentage-wise and similar for

of Wisconsin in the EAA’s calculus. The Teal Group analyst, Richard Aboulafia, said GA aircraft.

factors driving the decision to cancel Os- that the immediate future looks to be a “People don’t appear to be selling their
hkosh mirror broader concerns in General rough one. airplanes.”

Aviation (GA). “We’re probably going to have absolute Richard Aboulafia makes another com-

CAN IT FLY? carnage for 18 to 36 months.” parison.
His assessment dovetails with one from

Despite the national paralysis, COVID-19 New York-based Alton Aviation Consul- “What happened in 2008 was a financial

hasn’t put a stop to GA flying in the US. tancy. Alton’s Adam Cowburn projects a and equities markets collapse. Main Street

Federal regulations require private pilots significant negative impact on GA from did okay relatively. Here we’ve got financial

to maintain proficiency to fly safely, so their the macroeconomic malady that COVID markets doing bizarrely fine. It’s main

street that’s getting hit.”

flying activity has been deemed “essential”. has wrought.

But the number of airplanes flying is Given that much of the GA popula-

definitely fewer. tion is intertwined with the markets, it

As of May 4, aggregate air traffic may be a hopeful sign. As to whether

general aviation will climb, descend or

in the US (airline, business, GA) was hold altitude in the months to come,

down by 65 percent compared to the Aboulafia said he suspects the last.

pre-March level, according to the

FAA. You might expect that most of “I’ll go with hold altitude.” Q
the decline is the result of airlines

parking their planes, but that’s not Article shortened. Courtesy of:

the case. https://www.forbes.com/sites/
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