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Figure 12:3 Population projections by age
Source: Hywel Dda University Health Board
Over the same period there is expected to be a marked decline in the working age population. By 2033 the proportion of the population between 0-14 years in West Wales will reduce to 15% and 15 –24 year olds will also reduce to 11%. Older people in this region currently represent a higher percentage of the population with 21.3% of the area being 65 or over compared with 18.6% in Wales a whole. This raises into question capacity and resources to care and support the older age group. (Nuffield Trust, 2014).
With large parts of Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire being both rural and coastal, the region attracts high levels of inward migration of people over 65. People from elsewhere in the UK already account for almost 22% of the population of Wales, with the vast majority of the new arrivals retiring from England (Bingham, 2014) The highest levels are found in Pembrokeshire with a 31% migration rate with 87% of these being over 65. Ceredigion has the largest percentage of residents with a second home in the whole of the UK. Whilst this may be explained in part by the large student population, census data shows that 325 people over 65 in Ceredigion have second addresses outside the county. Of equal importance; data indicates that 1,182 pensioners have second homes in Ceredigion; these individuals have not moved permanently into the area but still spend a significant amount of time there, during which periods they might access health and social care services.
2) Older adults in the West Wales area have increasingly complex needs
Healthy and disability-free life expectancy is rising more slowly than life expectancy. People are living longer but with increased levels of illness and disability. Males in West Wales have a life expectancy of 77.4, with disability free life estimated at 59.4 and healthy life at 64. The equivalent figures for females are 82, 61.2 and 65.7 respectively (Public Health Wales, 2016).
West Wales Population Assessment March 2017 Older people