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EMPOWERMENT SCHOLARSHIP ACCOUNTS

                                                                                                                                                    BY CLEMENTINA CARLYLE
                                                                                                                                                    Surviving the Enrollment Rollercoaster:

                                                                                                                                                    Financial Strategies for Arizona Schools in
                                                                                                                                   Clementina Carlyle
                                                                                                                                                    the Era of Universal Vouchers


                                                                                                                                   Arizona’s school voucher program, known as             "The  challenge?  Maintaining  fiscal
                                                                                                                                   Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs), was           stability in an environment where the
                                                                                                                                   initially implemented in 2011. The program was
                                                                                                                                   originally limited to students with disabilities,      rules keep changing."
                                                                                                                                   military families, foster children, and students
                                                                                                                                   attending low-performing schools.                      The Enrollment Effect
                                                                                                                                                                                          •  Declining Revenue: State aid tied to average
                                                                                                                                   In 2022, the program was expanded to become               daily membership (ADM) decreases when
                                                                                                                                   a universal voucher program, making all K-12              students leave mid-year, but utility bills,
                                                                                                                                   students eligible regardless of income or other           insurance, and staffing costs remain largely
                                                                                                                                   criteria.  This program allows all families,              fixed.
                                                                                                                                   regardless of income or prior school enrollment,       •  Unpredictable Shifts: Families can now move
                                                                                                                                   to receive state funds to use  for  private  school       between public, private, and homeschool
                                                                                                                                   tuition,  homeschooling  expenses,  or  other             options with relative ease, making forecasting
                                                                                                                                   qualified education costs. The program has faced          more complicated.
                                                                                                                                   criticism for lack of accountability and potential     •  Equity Concerns: Schools serving higher-need
                                                                                                                                   to increase existing inequalities. Critics argue the      populations may face disproportionate cuts if
                                                                                                                                   program is lacking in oversight and accountability        families  with  more  resources  take  advantage
                                                                                                                                   measures, allowing for potential misuse of funds          of voucher programs at higher rates.
                                                                                                                                   and a lack of transparency.
                                                                                                                                                                                          Strategies for Stability

                                                                                                                                   The New Normal                                         1.     Scenario-Based Forecasting
                                                                                                                                   Universal Empowerment Scholarship  Accounts            Build three budget models — best case, moderate,
                                                                                                                                   (ESAs)  have  transformed  Arizona’s  education        and worst case — based on projected enrollment
                                                                                                                                   funding landscape. For school business officials,      changes. Update quarterly with real-time  ADM
                                                                                                                                   this means that enrollment — once relatively           data from the state.
                                                                                                                                   predictable — is now a moving target. Each student     2.     Optimize Staffing Models
                                                                                                                                   who leaves for a voucher-supported option takes        Use flexible staffing structures, such as shared
                                                                                                                                   per-pupil funding with them, leaving districts to      specialists or cross-trained support staff, to adjust
                                                                                                                                   juggle fixed costs with shrinking budgets.             more quickly to enrollment changes without over-
                                                                                                                                                                                          hiring.
                                                                                                                                                                                          3.     Maximize State and Federal Grants
                                                                                                                                                                                          Aggressively seek grant funding to supplement
                                                                                                                                                                                          lost  ADM revenue.  Title I,  and  targeted  state



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