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FACULTY OF HEALTH SCIENCES
SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN PUBLIC HEALTH

CANDIDATE: SALVATORY Magesa Emmanuel

CURRICULUM VITAE

Magesa Emmanuel Salvatory was born in Tanzania. He matriculated with
an Exemption from Caprivi Secondary School. His qualifications include
Bachelor of Pharmacy from the University of Dar es Salaam; and a Master in
Public Health from the University of Namibia. His professional career includes
working as a pharmacist at public health facilities in Tanzania and Namibia in different positions, as well
as independent researcher. While his academic experience includes part time lecturer, School of Nursing
at University of Namibia, Lecturer at Welwitchia University. His research interest incorporates stock levels
modeling and implementation.

CANDIDATE’S DISSERTATION

MODELING STOCK LEVELS OF MALARIA RAPID DIAGNOSTIC TEST KITS AND NEVIRAPINE SYRUP IN OSHANA
REGION, NAMBIBIA.

The doctoral study was undertaken and completed under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Honore Kabwebwe
Mitonga of the University of Namibia as Main-Supervisor and Dr. Penehafo Angula from the University of
Namibia as Co-Supervisor.

The candidate investigated a potential model of estimating stock levels of malaria test kit and Nevirapine
syrup in public health facilities in Oshana region Namibia. The study was based on the fact that Malaria and
HIV/AIDS are two most widely spread diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. The co-infection is very common in the
region, especially in unstable malaria transmission areas with the prevalence of 29.9 - 40%. In Namibia these
two diseases are common in northern eastern regions, which are unstable malaria transmission areas. These
two diseases affect poorer segments of the population. Individually and biologically Malaria increases viral
load of HIV people. The severity of malaria is more in pregnant women and children as well as people living
with HIV. Equity, access of malaria diagnostic test kits and NVP syrup is critical to control these two epidemic
diseases. Given the nature of current conditions, justification exists for a study to develop and demonstrate
a mathematical modeling of estimating stock levels, which can establish parameters to prevent stock-outs
of malaria rapid diagnostic test kit (mRDT) and Nevirapine Syrup (NVP syrup). The study adopted a mixed-
method design in order to provide a broader perspective of modeling of stock levels in public health facilities,
which underpins the delivery of mRDT for testing malaria and NVP syrup for PMTCT. In its quantitative aspect,
the study adopted a descriptive approach to acquire data from a period of five years retrospectively, in this
case 2012 to 2016 inclusive. Data were mainly obtained from Syspro, DHIS and EDT softwares. The data were
analysed using SPSS version 23 software, in which time series analysis was applied to determine forecasted
consumption of mRDT and NVP syrup. The correlation coefficient and Binary logistic regression were used
to identify factors associated with stock-out of mRDT and NVP syrup. Mathematical models of stock levels
were developed and validated. The findings showed that due to seasonal variation and other unforeseen
variables, the consumption of mRDT and NVP syrup in public health facilities is increasing every quarter,
while delivery lead time being a main factor and predictor of stock out. The model developed found to
have predictive accuracy of more than 70% in estimating stock levels. The use of this supply models will curb
unnecessary costs due to irregular orders.

Furthermore, the model will contribute to the prevention of stock out and diseases control. It is a
recommendation that similar models should be developed for other medicines such as anti TB, other ARVs
and antihypertensive drugs.

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