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2.0 SITUATION ANALYSIS (CONTINUED)
The Caribbean economies have managed to flatten the COVID-19 curve, but their key lifelines have collapsed. With tourism coming to a virtual standstill and key source markets in advanced economies plunging into deeper recession, the region is likely to experience a very sharp and protracted contraction in economic activity. Despite the reopening of borders starting in June for some Caribbean countries, international tourist arrivals are not expected to return to pre-crisis levels in the short-term. In addition, the current drop in oil prices is hurting those commodity exporters in the region (for example, Guyana and Trinidad) through a loss in exports and fiscal revenues.
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the accelerated approach to the building of resilience and diversification of the Caribbean economies is clearly essential for sustainability in all sectors. The World Bank, for example, is working with Caribbean governments, focusing on building resilience across four dimensions:
1. fiscal and financial resilience;
2. physical and infrastructure resilience;
3. human capital resilience and
4. environment and natural resource resilience
It is perhaps the last two which provide the greatest opportunity for the Council. As much as this is an unprecedented scenario, previous economic downturns and periods of uncertainty have not diminished the support provided to the Council. Governments of the region have prioritised human resource development, specifically education, and by extension, CXC®’s role in the educating of their citizens therefore, it is expected that the Council will be able to advance the digital transformation with respect to teaching, learning and assessment in order to promote economic growth.
2.1.3 Social Considerations
The Council has been the beneficiary of a favourable perception of the need for further education in the Caribbean, both by the policymakers and the general populace. Caribbean economies remain largely dependent on Tourism, Natural Resource Extraction and Agriculture. However, diversification in these and other sectors have required knowledge-based workers. This has resulted in persons seeking the requisite certifications to specialise in these areas, which has led to an expansion of our programme offerings.
Conversely, according to the World Bank census data between 2005 and 2018, the Caribbean experienced a negative change in the population rate due to a declining crude birth rate of approximately 18 per 1,000 population yearly. This has resulted in an adverse effect, particularly on our flagship qualification, CSEC®. In the longer term, the potential for growth could emanate from the premium placed on further education (that is having the same level of candidate entries for CAPE® as there are for CSEC®). In the shorter term, growth is likely from an expansion of the territories registering candidates for the CPEA®.
2.1.4 Technological Considerations
This is an area ripe for change in a positive way. The cost of technology continues to fall, while the technological advancements place tremendous computing capacity in the hands of the general populace. These advancements have changed the way in which we conduct all aspects of human interaction. This was brought forcefully to the fore by the COVID-19 pandemic with countries worldwide implementing lockdowns that necessitated a change to traditional work practices. Globally, telecommuting and remote
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