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Scenario Narratives  LOCK STEP







                  interests — whether it was gaining access to    Wherever national interests clashed with
                  needed resources or banding together in order   individual interests, there was conflict. Sporadic
                  to achieve economic growth. In South America    pushback became increasingly organized and
                  and Africa, regional and sub-regional alliances   coordinated, as disaffected youth and people
                  became more structured. Kenya doubled its       who had seen their status and opportunities slip
                  trade with southern and eastern Africa, as new   away — largely in developing countries — incited
                  partnerships grew within the continent. China’s   civil unrest. In 2026, protestors in Nigeria
                  investment in Africa expanded as the bargain    brought down the government, fed up with the
                  of new jobs and infrastructure in exchange for   entrenched cronyism and corruption. Even those
                  access to key minerals or food exports proved   who liked the greater stability and predictability
                  agreeable to many governments. Cross-border     of this world began to grow uncomfortable and
                  ties proliferated in the form of official security   constrained by so many tight rules and by the
                  aid. While the deployment of foreign security   strictness of national boundaries. The feeling
                  teams was welcomed in some of the most dire     lingered that sooner or later, something would
                  failed states, one-size-fits-all solutions yielded   inevitably upset the neat order that the world’s
                  few positive results.                           governments had worked so hard to establish. •

                  By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of
                  so much top-down control and letting leaders
                                                                                                                       Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development
                  and authorities make choices for them.


















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