Page 29 - Rockefeller Lockstep Document

Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER

to address the needs of the bottom billion — and to solar created new “sun” jobs, drastically cut
enabling developing countries to become engines CO emissions, and earned governments billions
2
of growth in their own right. annually. India exploited its geography to create
similar “solar valleys” while decentralized solar-
In many parts of the developing world, economic
powered drip irrigation systems became popular
growth rates increased due to a host of factors.
in sub-Saharan Africa.
Improved infrastructure accelerated the greater
mobility of both people and goods, and urban Reduced energy dependency enabled all of these
and rural areas got better connected. In Africa, countries and regions to better control and
growth that started on the coasts spread inward manage their own resources. In Africa, political
along new transportation corridors. Increased architecture above the nation-state level, like
trade drove the specialization of individual firms the African Union, strengthened and contributed
and the overall diversification of economies. to a “good governance” drive. Regional
In many places, traditional social barriers to integration through COMESA (the Common
overcoming poverty grew less relevant as more Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) and
people gained access to a spectrum of useful other institutions allowed member nations to
technologies — from disposable computers to do- better organize to meet their collective needs as
it-yourself (DIY) windmills. consumers and increasingly as producers.

Given the circumstances that forced these new Over the course of two decades, enormous strides
heights of global cooperation and responsibility, were made to make the world less wasteful, more
it was no surprise that much of the growth efficient, and more inclusive. But the world was
in the developing world was achieved more far from perfect. There were still failed states
cleanly and more “greenly.” In Africa, there and places with few resources. Moreover, such
was a big push for solar energy, as the physical rapid progress had created new problems. Rising Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development
geography and low population density of much consumption standards unexpectedly ushered
of the continent enabled the proliferation of in a new set of pressures: the improved food
solar farms. The Desertec initiative to create distribution system, for example, generated a
massive thermal electricity plants to supply food production crisis due to greater demand.
both North Africa and, via undersea cable lines, Indeed, demand for everything was growing
Southern Europe was a huge success. By 2025, exponentially. By 2028, despite ongoing efforts 29
a majority of electricity in the Maghreb was to guide “smart growth,” it was becoming clear
coming from solar, with exports of that power that the world could not support such rapid
earning valuable foreign currency. The switch growth forever. •