Page 9 - Counter Insurgancy

likelihood of cooperation. If the USG does decide to become involved, then policy
makers should seek a careful balance which employs the most appropriate, most
indirect and least intrusive form of intervention yet still gives a high probability of
achieving the necessary effect. The sovereignty of the affected government must
be maintained and too high a U.S. profile may be counter-productive (historically,
some of the most successful U.S. engagements have been indirect and low key).
Once U.S. assistance is committed, a COIN strategy must be devised, ideally in
collaboration with the affected government and other coalition partners, since their
early inclusion can help mitigate the effects of operational level differences in goals,
capabilities and culture. Detailed, integrated planning then follows and a process
of continuous monitoring, evaluation and assessment is used to measure progress
and identify where changes in approach are necessary to achieve success.

Success in COIN can be difficult to define, but improved governance will usually
bring about marginalization of the insurgents to the point at which they are destroyed,
co-opted or reduced to irrelevance in numbers and capability. U.S. intervention may
cease when success is assured but before it is actually achieved. Ultimately, the
desired end state is a government that is seen as legitimate, controlling social, politi-
cal, economic and security institutions that meet the population’s needs, including
adequate mechanisms to address the grievances that may have fueled support of the
insurgency.

4 U.S. GOVERNMENT COUNTERINSURGENCY GUIDE • JANUARY 2009