Page 24 - TrailerTalk - February 2026

TRAILERTALK

GDP Rose 1.4 Percent in Q4, 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December),
according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4%.

The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–
November 2025 government shutdown.

The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements
were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and
exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was
smaller than in the prior quarter.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.4% in the
fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9% in the third quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4% in the third quarter.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9%, compared with an increase of 2.8%. Excluding food and energy
prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7%, compared with an increase of 2.9%.

GDP for 2025

Real GDP increased 2.2% in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8% in 2024. The
increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6% in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4% in 2024. The PCE price index
increased 2.6%, the same increase as in 2024. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8% , compared with an
increase of 2.9%.

Chicago Business Barometer
Personal Income Increased $86.2
Billion in December; Outlays Up Climbed to 57.7 in February
$90.2 Billion • The Chicago Business Barometer , produced with MNI, climbed 3.7
TM
points to 57.7 in February. Extending January’s strong increase, it saw
Personal income increased $86.2 billion (0.3% at a monthly a second consecutive month in expansionary territory after a run of
rate) in December, according to estimates released today by twenty-five months below the key 50 mark.
the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal
income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes • The rise was driven by increases in Production, Employment, New
— increased $75.7 billion (0.3%), and personal consumption Orders and Supplier Deliveries. A decline in Order Backlogs provided
expenditures (PCE) increased $91.0 billion (0.4%).
some offset.
This report for December 2025, originally scheduled for Jan. • Production strengthened 9.0 points to the highest level since Novem-
29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November ber 2023, and marking two months above 50.
2025 government shutdown.
• Employment grew 7.7 points to the highest level since October 2021.
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest
payments, and personal current transfer payments— The index is in expansionary territory for the first time since November
increased $90.2 billion in December. Personal saving was 2023.
$830.8 billion in December, and the personal saving rate—
personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal • New Orders rose 2.9 points to the strongest level since January 2022.
income — was 3.6%.
• Supplier Deliveries nudged 1.4 points higher, remaining strong and
The increase in current-dollar personal income in December uninterrupted.
primarily reflected increases in personal current transfer
receipts and compensation. • Order Backlogs slipped 4.5 points, now back in contractionary territory
after one month above 50.
The $91.0 billion increase in current-dollar PCE reflected
an increase of $98.5 billion in spending on services and a • Prices Paid ticked up 2.4 points, partially unwinding January’s sharp
decrease of $7.5 billion in spending on goods. decrease.
• Inventories dropped 8.0 points, also back in contractionary territory
24 after one month above 50.