Page 17 - June-July 2025

TRAILERTALK
U.S. Economy Holds Steady in May: PMI Signals

Growth Amid Tariff Pressures, Inflation Ticks Up,

Retail and Housing Slump…Continued from Page 16

Potential Interest Rate Cut?

The probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July
is relatively low, with current market expectations primarily focused
on a September or later cut. While some Fed officials have indicated
a willingness to cut rates if inflation remains subdued, the prevailing
sentiment is to wait for more data, particularly regarding the impact of
tariffs on the economy.
New Home Sales

In May 2025, sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. experienced
a significant decline, falling 13.7% compared to April, according to the
U.S. Census Bureau. This drop to 623,000 units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate) also represents a 6.3% decrease compared to May 2024.
While new home sales decreased, existing home sales saw a slight Freight Activity
increase, rising 0.8% in May.
The U.S. freight market is currently in a state of slow recovery
Oil Prices and rebalancing after a prolonged downturn. While facing some

As June 29, 2025, oil prices in the U.S. were fluctuating. WTI crude oil challenges, there are signs of stabilization and potential future
futures, a benchmark for oil prices, were trading around $65.52 per growth. The latest data from DAT Trendlines shows the current load-to-
barrel, with a slight increase of $0.28. Other related commodities like truck-ratio (which helps us understand how many loads are currently
Brent crude are also experiencing minor changes, while natural gas looking for trucks) show it decelerating (easing) through June 14.
and gasoline prices are also seeing some movement. When oil prices Load Posts:
are high, it can decrease demand for products requiring transportation,
leading to reduced shipment volumes. • Load posts on DAT One reached their highest point in 2025
in May, jumping 29%.
Retail Sales
• For the week of June 16-22, spot load posts decreased by
U.S. retail sales experienced a decrease in May, falling by 0.9%. This 1.8% compared to the previous week.
decline is larger than the previous month’s drop of 0.1% and worse
than economists’ predictions. While overall sales saw a decrease, sales • However, they increased by 5.3% compared to April 2025
excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and and 7.2% compared to May 2024.
gasoline stations were up 0.4%. Year-over-year, retail sales growth is at
3.3%, compared to 5% in April. Spot Truck Posts:
• For the week of June 16–22, spot truck posts decreased by
In May 2025, several major retailers announced store closures or went
out of business. These included Joann Fabrics, which closed all 800 0.8% compared to the previous week.
stores and its online site, and Party City, which closed all locations due • They decreased by 6.8% compared to April 2025 and 27.7%
to bankruptcy. Walgreens also closed a significant number of stores, compared to May 2024.
part of a larger plan to eliminate 1,200 locations by 2027.
Load-to-Truck Ratios (LTR):
Additionally, JCPenney closed eight more stores in May, adding to its
already extensive list of closures. Macy’s also continued its planned • Van: Decreased by 1.3% week-over-week (June 16–22 vs.
closures, with 66 stores shutting down in 2025. Family Dollar closed 370 June 9–15). However, it saw a significant increase of 29.1%
stores, following 600 closures in 2024. In June 2025, CaaStle, compared to April 2025 and 31.7% compared to May 2024.
Inc. filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and initiated a full • Flatbed: Decreased by 0.1% week-over-week (June 16–22 vs.
liquidation of its assets. Additionally, Hemper, a sustainable
fashion brand, entered liquidation during the same June 9–15). It decreased by 8.6% compared to April 2025 but
increased by 79.5% compared to May 2024.
month. Kroger announced that it will close 60 stores across
the U.S. • Reefer: Increased by 2.6% week-over-week (June 16–22 vs.
June 9–15). It saw a significant increase of 28.7% compared to
April 2025 and 69.8% compared to May 2024.

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