Page 20 - April-May 2025

TRAILERTALK
U.S. Economy Faces Mixed Signals: Trailer Orders

Up in March; GDP Slips; Tariffs Stir Market Volatility

U.S. Trailer Order Intake at replacing those exiting the market.
21.2k Units in March
March net trailer orders, just below GDP Declined Q1, 2025
21.2k units, were up nearly 21% Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of
from February and 63% above the 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March),
lackluster level accepted in March according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau
2024, according to this month’s of Economic Analysis. In Q4. 2024, real GDP increased 2.4%.
issue of ACT Research’s State of the
Industry: U.S. Trailers report. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an
increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
“March’s net order intake puts the and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly
Q1, 2025 tally at 62.7k units, 29% offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
higher than Q1, 2024 bookings,”
said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at Unemployment
ACT Research. “While good news, we caution that the industry’s annual Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and
period of seasonally stronger order months is ending, and weaker the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, the U.S. Bureau of
intake months are expected as we move into the late spring/summer, Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in health
amid tariff uncertainty that is likely extending the ‘pause’ on ordering care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social
decisions.” assistance. Federal government employment declined.

“For only the fifth time in nearly a year, order intake outpaced build, and The unemployment rate was 4.2%, unchanged from last month and
by about 4,000 units. As a result, backlogs expanded 4.5% sequentially wages were growing at a steady 3.8% across the macro economy.
but were down 24% against 2024’s backdrop,” McNealy concluded. Government employment fell by 9,000 this month, which is largely
some of the data that everyone was expecting to see.
Spot Market
In April 2025, the DAT Trendlines report showed a national average van Transportation and warehousing added 29,000 workers in April,
rate of $1.98 per mile, slightly lower than the March average, with the despite the sharp reduction in imports and exports. Employment
highest rates in the Midwest and the lowest in the Northeast. The load- showed little or no change over the month in other major industries,
to-truck ratio nationally was 3.86, lower than the February average, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction;
with higher ratios in the South and Southeastern states and lower manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; professional
ratios on the West Coast and in Northern states. Flatbed rates were and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services. In all,
also higher than in March, averaging $2.60 per mile. Reefer rates this was a stable report and showed that the economy was resilient.
averaged $2.26 per mile, with the Midwest having the highest average
and the Northeast the lowest. Oil Market Volatility
On April 28, 2025, the Brent crude oil price stood at $64.73 per barrel,
DAT reported that load demand was up 17% year-over-year and was compared to $62.05 for WTI oil and $68.16 for the OPEC basket. Crude
3% higher between March and April. The number of available trucks oil prices were the lowest they had been in four years as the U.S.
was down 21.8% in the same period, leading to a 26% increase in the introduced widespread trade tariffs.
number of loads looking for trucks year-over-year at the end of April.
That’s hardly a slowdown on the surface. Spot prices were up 0.5% These price movements are partly supported by recent inventory
as a result. While capacity remains elevated, signs of rebalancing are reports showing significant drawdowns in crude products, despite
emerging, with Class 8 production slowing and used equipment broader economic concerns. JP Morgan recently lowered its oil price
markets normalizing. forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+
and weaker demand.
The outlook for the spot market in 2025 is far from robust, with renewed
strength in the spot market indicated by increased load posts. DAT The U.S. has announced that it is beginning to refill the Strategic
expects truckload rates to rise gradually, driven by fewer new carriers Petroleum Reserves. Analysts say to watch for some trade deals and

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