Page 70 - The Economist USA

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70 Science & technology The Economist April 25th 2020

Covid-19 sus is emerging among its scientists, econ-

Tests of reason omists and public-health officials that a
massive increase in testing capacity—cre-
ating a system that can test millions of peo-
ple a day for the virus—will be needed to
get the place out of lockdown safely. A test-
ing system of this kind has never been built
before. It will be expensive, costing tens,
To end their lockdowns safely, countries will have to build and deploy testing
systems at unprecedented scale possibly hundreds of billions of dollars in
America alone. But it offers a way to return
ars-cov-2, the virus that causes co- flowing in response. The result will be to something approaching normal life with
Svid-19, is an unobtrusive piece of biolog- mounting death tolls, depressed econo- a degree of confidence that the pandemic is
ical machinery. It spreads parasitically mies and confidence-sapping uncertainty. under control.
through the respiratory tracts of human be- This can, however, be partly ameliorated by The goal of this new testing regime
ings, often without provoking symptoms extensive testing for the virus. Testing en- would be to track down every carrier of the
in those who carry it. Yet for some, particu- ables the government to keep tabs on the virus so that those at risk of spreading it
larly the old, it is deadly. This combination disease, reveals which social-distancing could be isolated. The contacts of anyone
of properties make the pandemic both dan- measures work, and, if those testing posi- who tested positive would be traced and
gerous and difficult to stop. As of April tive remain at home, instils confidence in tested as soon as possible, to cut off further
22nd it had killed 182,000 people. the public that it is safe to go out. chains of transmission. Trevor Bedford,
So far, every country that has reduced who studies viruses and immunity at the
covid-19 infection to low levels has relied to Economies of scale Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre
some degree on “social distancing”—that America is in a particularly tight spot. Parts in Seattle, has said that what is currently
is, either encouraging or forcing people to of its government responded slowly to the known about the virus suggests that the
stay at home, and to keep well apart if they pandemic to start with, and it now faces system must track down and isolate all of
find that they have to go out—to prevent high levels of infection that are spread an infected person’s contacts within 48
the virus from spreading. On top of this across the country. In response, a consen- hours of their positive test if the transmis-
many are in any case fearful to go out, lest sion chain is to be broken. If testing and
they catch the illness. Without a vaccine or Also in this section tracing can do this, then people can go safe-
therapeutic drugs, neither of which is guar- ly about their lives.
anteed, countries therefore face a future of 72 A past pandemic and the present one Currently, the test employed to find out
bouncing in and out of lockdown every few 73 By invitation: Bill Gates if someone is infected looks for the virus it-
months, with infection rates ebbing and self using a technique called reverse tran- 1