Page 29 - UKRRptNov18

5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-5.3
-1
-3.5
-2.1
-2.8
% GDP
-7.10%
-1.50%
-2.20%
-6.30%
-8.10%
-9.00%
-4.00%
-1.10%
-3.70%
-1.90%
-2.10%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.5
-8
0.8
4.7
4.7
2
% GDP
5.40%
-10.20%
5.90%
4.80%
5.80%
10.10%
-6.10%
0.90%
5.00%
4.20%
1.50%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
6.6
3.4
0.3
2.5
3.3
1.2
2
% of GDP
5.50%
4.00%
4.20%
4.30%
3.80%
1.80%
0.20%
2.80%
3.50%
1.10%
1.50%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
19
Source: SP Advisors
5.1 External sector overview
Ukraine posted $8.598bn in the deficit of foreign trade in goods in services in January-September 2018 , which was 1.5 times higher year-over-year, when the deficit amounted to $5.794bn.
The deficit of foreign trade in goods alone increased by 41.4% in the nine months of 2018, to $9.047bn, the National Bank of Ukraine said on its website.
At the same time, foreign trade in services was in surplus, yet Ukraine saw a 25.8% decrease in the surplus, to $449mn.
The State Statistics Service reported that Ukraine saw a deficit in foreign trade in 2017 estimated at $2.625bn compared to a surplus of $541.6mn in 2016. The National Bank estimated the deficit of foreign trade in goods and services of Ukraine in 2017 at $6.848bn, which was 25.2% more than the deficit in 2016.
In 8M18, the trade deficit reached $5.0bn, or a 45.7% y/y surge . Imports advanced 16.1% y/y, outpacing exports, which grew 12.4% y/y. The major contributors to import growth were machinery (19.0% y/y), energy (14.3% y/y), and chemicals (10.9% y/y). In addition, food imports picked up 26.6% y/y, expanding their role in the import structure.
Export growth continues to be driven by ferrous metals (25.7% y/y growth in 8M18), machinery (19.0% y/y), and timber (30.0% y/y).
Exports to the EU grew 18.3% y/y in 8M18, outpacing import growth of 13.4% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 42.1% and 41.1% respectively.
The 8M18 goods trade deficit overshot our estimate of $4.8bn. The provisional customs statistics indicate that the trade deficit will amount to $1.1bn in
29 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com