Page 31 - UKRRptNov18

export increase of 4.7% m/m and adjusted import decline of 4.4% m/m. In January-August, the trade deficit reached $5bn, or a 45.7% year-on-year surge. Imports advanced 16.1% y/y, outpacing exports, which grew 12.4% y/y. The major contributors to import growth were machinery (19% y/y), energy (14.3% y/y), and chemicals (10.9% y/y). In addition, food imports picked up 26.6% y/y, expanding their role in the import structure. Export growth continues to be driven by ferrous metals (25.7% y/y growth in January-August), machinery (19% y/y), and timber (30% y/y). The provisional customs statistics indicate that the trade deficit will amount to $1.1bn in September and bring the January-September result to around $6.1bn, Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on October 17. Concorde forecasts the 2018 goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) to reach $900mn, with import growth outpacing export increase.
The balance of payment in August has a surplus of $27 mn, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported.
The NBU said that the deficit of the account of the balance of payment in August compared with July decreased to $601mn thanks to a decline in the deficit of trade with goods. "First of all, the large slowdown in the annual pace of growth of imports of goods, which was bigger than the slowdown in growth of exports, contributed to this," the central bank said.
According to the NBU, in January-August, the current account deficit was $2.1bn, while in the same period last year the deficit was $833bn.
The volume of exports of goods in August rose by 10.5%, to $3.7bn. "A slight slowdown in export growth compared to July was primarily due to a reduction in the volume of metallurgical production and difficulties with cargo transportation by the Azov Sea," the central bank said. As a result, the growth in exports of metallurgical products slowed to 11.2% year-over-year. At the same time, the export of food products increased by 6.3% year-over-year and reached a record high for August due to the growth of world wheat prices and large volumes of harvested oilseeds.
In general, in January-August, exports increased by 11.6% compared to the corresponding period last year, to $28.2bn.
According to the central bank, the volume of imports of goods in August amounted to almost $5bn, but its growth slowed significantly, to 17.4% year-over-year.
Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit shrank 40% month-on-month to $848mn in September (from $1,419mn in July), the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat stated in its preliminary report published on October 16.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit declined 32.6% m/m amid an adjusted export increase of 4.7% m/m and adjusted import decline of 4.4% m/m.
In January-August, the trade deficit reached $5bn, or a 45.7% year-on-year surge. Imports advanced 16.1% y/y, outpacing exports, which grew 12.4% y/y. The major contributors to import growth were machinery (19% y/y), energy (14.3% y/y), and chemicals (10.9% y/y). In addition, food imports picked up 26.6% y/y, expanding their role in the import structure.
31 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com