Page 32 - UKRRptNov18

Export growth continues to be driven by ferrous metals (25.7% y/y growth in January-August), machinery (19% y/y), and timber (30% y/y).
The provisional customs statistics indicate that the trade deficit will amount to $1.1bn in September and bring the January-September result to around $6.1bn, Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on October 17.
Concorde forecasts the 2018 goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) to reach $900mn, with import growth outpacing export increase.
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
External 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 2015 2016 Jan-Nov 2017 2018 balance 4 2017 E F
Exports (US$bn) 61.4 82.5 52.1 65.6 83.7 86.5 81.7 65.4 47.6 44.9 39.4 60.2 60.8
Imports (US$bn) 69.5 96.8 54 69.6 93.8 100.9 97.4 70 49 50.3 44.5 54.6 57.2
Trade balance -8.1 -14.4 -2 -4 -10.1 -14.3 -15.6 -4.6 -1.5 -2.9 -5.2 -5.3 -6.4 (US$bn)
Trade balance -5.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.9 -6.2 -8.2 -8.7 -3.5 -1.6 -5.8 / -4.4 -5.9 (% of GDP)
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s exports through August were up 12.4% y/y, to $30.9bn , according to the Economic Development and Trade Ministry. Exports to the EU
32 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com