Page 11 - GEORptMay19.pdf

3.2 Macro outlook
ADB projects 5% GDP growth in Georgia
IMF expects Georgia’s GDP growth to clock 4.6% in 2019
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected economic growth in Georgia will be recorded at 5% this year and 4.9% in 2020. Its forecasts are given in its newly issued Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 report .
Georgia’s economy expanded by 5% in 2017. The government also expects 5% this year, as a minimum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects 4.6%, with infrastructure spending expected to compensate for weaker external demand and slower credit growth.
The ADO determines that the development of workforce skills will help Georgia strengthen its business environment and infrastructure construction. These factors, it says, will in turn contribute to attracting investments in high-revenue sectors.
Export and consumption will also contribute to higher economic growth this year, the ADO concludes. In 2019, growth will be notably driven by the financial sector with respect to retail and wholesale trade, while high investments will speed up the growth of agriculture to 2.8%, it adds.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a broadly optimistic forecast for Georgia’s economy, foreseeing 4.6% GDP growth in 2019.
Its conclusions came following talks in Tbilisi on recent economic and financial developments and progress with structural reforms. The Fund will return to Georgia for an April-May fourth review of the IMF programme being undertaken in the country.
The growth expected for 2019 is only marginally behind last year’s 4.7% advance. It should arise substantially because of significant infrastructure investment that will compensate for weaker external demand and slower credit growth, the Fund said.
Georgia’s current account deficit is projected to stabilise at around 8% of GDP (no change from 2018, but down from 8.5% of GDP in 2017), owing to still-robust growth in exports and remittances.
11 GEORGIA Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com