Page 24 - UKRRptDec18

The World Bank last week worsened the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.5% and in 2019 to 3.5% from 4%
GDP growth in Ukraine in 2019 will be at 0.5% -- a rather extreme view according to most analysts -- while in 2020 and 2021 the pace will be 1% and 2.9%, respectively, as stated in the forecast of the country's economic development titled "Limited Pessimism," released by Razumkov Center.
As for inflation, Razumkov Center predicts that in 2019 it will be at 10.7% , in 2020 it will amount to 8.3%, and to 7.4% in 2021. The dollar in 2019 is projected at UAH 30.5 hryvnia per USD 1, UAH 32/USD in 2020, and UAH33.3/USD in 2021.
Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 116.9 135.2 135.3 99.9 81.4 78.3 84.8
Nominal GDP per capita (EUR) 2,573 2,987 3,341 2,332 1,904 1,737 1,994
Real GDP (% yoy) 5.5 0.2 0 -6.6 -9.8 2.3 2.0
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 8 0.6 -0.2 12.1 48.7 14.9 14.5
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 8.7 8.2 7.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.3
General budget balance (% of -1.8 -3.8 -4.4 -4.9 -2.3 -3.5 -3 GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 36.4 37.1 40.7 52.9 72.6 81.3 84.9
Current account balance (% of -6.3 -8.2 -9.2 -3.5 -0.2 -3.7 -5.2 GDP)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 77.6 76.5 79.3 95.2 131.5 142.9 142.5
EUR/LCY (avg) 11 10 11 16 24 30 31
Source: national sources, wiiw, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (UAH mn)
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
2.18
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
2,640
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
2,592,546
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
474,133
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
1,430,790
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
1,607,035
24 UKRAINE Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com