Page 34 - UKRRptDec18

The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit enlarged 37.7% m/m amid an adjusted export decline of 3.3% m/m and adjusted import growth of 3.9% m/m.
In 9M18, the trade deficit reached $6.5bn, or a 67.1% y/y surge .
Imports advanced 16.1% y/y, outpacing exports, which grew 10.3% y/y. The major contributors to import growth were machinery (20.0% y/y), energy (14.8% y/y), and chemicals (10.4% y/y).
Export growth continued to be driven by ferrous metals (25.3% y/y growth in 9M18), machinery (14.4% y/y), and timber (30.5% y/y).
Exports to the EU grew 16.0% y/y in 9M18, outpacing import growth of 13.1% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 42.3% and 41.1%, respectively.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: “The trade deficit's growth significantly accelerated in September amid falling imports. The 9M18 goods trade deficit overshot our estimate of $6.1bn. The provisional customs statistics indicate that the trade deficit will amount to $1.5bn in October and bring the 10M18 result to around $8.0bn. We expect the 2018 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) to reach 9.0bn, with import growth outpacing export increases. The goods trade deficit surge in September-October should inevitably translate into weakening of the national currency (though it remained stable in October). We expect the exchange rate to depreciate to UAH29.50/$by the end of 2018.”
34 UKRAINE Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com