Page 36 - UKRRptDec18

summer months.
The hryvnia slipped about 8% against the $ and € in the 3Q, but remained broadly stable in October.
With private household demand buoyant and fuelled by growing incomes, the C/A deficit is set to exceed our earlier projections. We now revise out forecast for the 2018 C/A gap to 3.8% of GDP from 2.1%. Over the mid-term, we see no change to our forecast of a shortfall in the range of 3.0-3.5% of GDP, with no threat to macro stability.
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
External 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 balance
2015 2016
2017 2018 E F
Exports (US$bn) 61.4 82.5 52.1 65.6 83.7 86.5 81.7 65.4 47.6 44.9 60.2 60.8
Imports (US$bn) 69.5 96.8 54 69.6 93.8 100.9 97.4 70 49 50.3 54.6 57.2
Trade balance -8.1 -14.4 -2 -4 -10.1 -14.3 -15.6 -4.6 -1.5 -2.9 -5.3 -6.4 (US$bn)
Trade balance -5.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.9 -6.2 -8.2 -8.7 -3.5 -1.6 -5.8 -4.4 -5.9 (% of GDP)
Source: ICU
Bilateral trade in goods between Ukraine and China in January-August 2018 increased by 21% compared to the same period in 2017, to $5.8bn , First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economic Development and Trade
36 UKRAINE Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com