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AfrElec                                      COMMENTARY                                              AfrElec



























































                           Finally, the International Energy Agency  analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy
                         (IEA) said in its 2022 World Energy Outlook,  and Clean Air (CREA) showed.
                         published ahead of COP27, that carbon emis-  Carbon Tracker said that demand for fossil
                         sions would peak in 2025, dubbing the date a  fuels in Europe was decreasing owing to high
                         “historic turning point.”            prices and strong wind and solar output, con-
                           While all these pre-COP27 forecasts spell  trary to fears of a resurgence due to the energy
                         doom and gloom, they do offer some forms of  crisis, said Lauri Myllyvirta, from the CREA.
                         hope for progress.                     This fall in emissions follows a 16-month
                           The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the single  surge that began in the wake of the coronavirus
                         event with the biggest impact on global energy  (COVID) pandemic.
                         markets, and by extension carbon emissions and   Myllyvirta told bne Intellinews in July that
                         climate change.                      the problem holding back emissions cuts was
                           The IEA said the invasion would be a turning  that deeper policy developments were needed to
                         point for the global energy market. Renewable  drive forward to energy transition and to meet
                         energy will grow and the global demand for  the EU’s targets.
                         hydrocarbons will now plateau, the IEA predicts.  “The bottlenecks for meeting the target that
                           Russia’s share in the global oil and gas market  the EU has, in other words the thing that we need
                         will fall by 50% by 2030, while Capital Econom-  to be on the lookout for, include permitting and
                         ics forecasts Russia oil production will drop 10%,  supply chain issues, which are quite separate
                         or by 1mn barrels per day (bpd), in 2023 alone.  from the Ukraine war, these are the key issues
                                                              in order for the clean energy targets to become
                         Emissions                            attainable.”
                         Meanwhile, the EU’s emissions of CO2 from
                         energy use fell by 5% between August and Octo-  Global South
                         ber. compared to the same period in 2021, new  Compared to Europe’s gas crisis, it is the poorer



       Week 45  09•November•2022                www. NEWSBASE .com                                              P5
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