Page 7 - Uzbek Outlook 2023

“The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic
effects all weigh heavily on the outlook,” the IMF said in its October
economic update, projecting Uzbekistan’s economic growth would
decline to 4.7% in 2023.

Asian Development Bank (ADB), meanwhile, has projected that
Uzbekistan’s GDP will expand by 4% in 2022 and 5% in 2023.

The Ministry of Finance in its 2023 budget draft reckoned with a GDP
expansion of 5.3%, followed by growth rates of 5.6% and 6% in 2024
and 2025 respectively.

3.2 External environment

Uzbekistan’s economy continues to maintain positive dynamics despite
the intensification of external challenges. Increased price volatility on
global commodity markets and the disruption of international supply
chains are reflected in the acceleration of inflation in the country.

Nevertheless, the country's foreign trade activity continued to clock high
growth rates in 2022. Foreign trade turnover in 11M22 increased by
18% y/y. The volume of exports increased by 12% to $17.3bn, while
imports surged by 22.1% to $27.6bn. As a result, the foreign trade
deficit amounted to $10.2bn.

Currently, Uzbekistan has trade relations with 200 countries. The
largest share of total trade turnover is accounted for by Russia (18.6%).
Next are China (18.2%), Kazakhstan (9.3%), Turkey (6.5%), South
Korea (4.8%), Kyrgyzstan (2.5%) and Germany (2.1%).

The country is intent on expanding its list of “traditional trading
partners”. Investment and foreign trade minister Jamshid Khodjaev,
addressing an Uzbekistan-Hungary business forum in November 2022,
said that the process of accession to the WTO was a priority for

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