Page 27 - RusRPTAug20

Construction activity was down by 3% y/y.
Unemployment also continued to rise in May. At the end of the month, Russia had 4.5mn unemployed persons, about 6% of the labour force. During April-May, the number of unemployed grew by about amn persons. Wages have also started to decline. Real wages in April were down by 2% y/y.
Russia’s economy ministry estimates that Russian GDP contracted by about 11% y/y in April-May. Forward-looking indicators suggest that the economy bounced back somewhat in June.
Russian basic industries output, which is a good proxy for GDP, dropped by 9.7% y/y in Q2​. This is a so far a shallower drop than during the GFC. One of the factors cushioning the current blow is that Russian services sector is not yet as sizeable as in high-income countries
Russian national targets set in 2018 for 2024 are now to be achieved by 2030.​ Ironically, according to the IMF forecasts, Russia will become the 5th largest economy in the world in PPP terms in 2020, fulfilling one of the goals. But that will be only for one year.
Other goals seem to be ever more distant. Especially the one to cut poverty rate by half from 18,4% in 2018 ​and to ensure sustainable natural population growth. Demographic trends look troublesome as a relatively small generation of those born in 1990s achieve reproductive age.
Key macroeconomic indicators "
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 5M19
2.3 0.5 2.9 4.3 2.8 1.7 4.3 5.1 6.8 2 114.9 48.7 2.7 2.7
62.7 65.7 69.5 65.4 70.8 66.4 7.75 7.75
2019e
2020e
GDP
Industrial output
Retail trade
Inflation (EOP)
Real wages
Current account, $ bn
Budget deficit, % of GDP
RUB/USD (avr) RUB/USD (EOP) Brent $ / bbl (avr) CBR rate
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.6 1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 -10 -4.6 1.3
11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 1.3 -9.5 0.6 2.9 59.5 69.6 25 35.2 -0.4 -2.5 -3.4 -1.4
38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6 99 52.4 43.6 54.3 17 11 10 7.75
1.1 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.5 2 4.2 3.8 1.3 1.8 118 93 1.9 1.6
65.3 64.5 64.7 65.4 70 75 7.25 6.75
27​ RUSSIA Country Report​ August 2020
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