Page 28 - RusRPTAug20
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3.2 Macro outlook
CBR is optimistic about recovery in 2021 predicting 3.5-4.5% growth. It now expects small current account surplus for 2020 and only $18 bn decrease in international reserves.
International economic and financial organizations have further lowered their forecasts for the Russian economy in May and June.
According to forecasts published in May and June, Russia's GDP will shrink by 4.5–8% this year, and according to the latest consensus forecasts, by about 4.5–5%. Such a wide range of forecasts for the current year, when the year is already quite long, reflects the particular uncertainty surrounding the forecasts in the very short term.
Next year, GDP is projected in most forecasts to recover from this year's pit at a rate of 3-4%. International organizations ’forecast assumptions for the annual average oil price this year range from $ 30 to $ 38. The price of oil is expected to rise to $ 38-40 next year. Russia's central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina recently said the central bank's forecast is unchanged for the time being: GDP is expected to shrink 4-6% this year at $ 27 for Urals oil, although . The central bank expects GDP to return to 2019 levels in the first half of 2022.
Some forecasts draw attention to cooperation between OPEC countries, Russia and some other oil-producing countries, in addition to falling foreign and domestic demand due to the coronary pandemic and related restrictive measures, as well as falling oil prices. The restrictions on oil production contained in their spring co-operation agreement are found to weigh on Russia's GDP on the one hand, and on the other hand the restrictions are
28 RUSSIA Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com
