Page 30 - RusRPTAug20
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4.0 Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -2.7
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
4.1 Industrial production
Russia's industrial output remained in recession with a 9.4% year-on-year decline reported in June and 3.5% y/y decline in 1H20 overall, according to the data from RosStat statistics agency.
As reported by bne IntelliNews, in May 2020 Russia's industrial output decreased by 9.7%, mostly due to lower oil and gas output as a result of the OPEC+ deal, while some stabilisation was seen in manufacturing.
In June industrial performance was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 7.2% decline, with the main factor behind the weakness again being the oil and gas sector: production of crude oil and natural gas fell by 15.4% y/y in June (-4.9% y/y in 1H20), with cuts in output driven by the OPEC+ deal and low demand for natural gas due to the warm winter, BCS Global Market commented on July 17.
But in the meantime the decline in manufacturing industry (-6.4% y/y) and in utilities (-4.8% y/y) were almost the same as seen in May.
"This shows that domestic demand continues to remain under severe pressure as a result of a large contraction in the population’s and corporate incomes caused by the pandemic," BCS GM warns.
Extraction apart, the largest declines in y/y output in 1H20 were recorded in the automotive industry and the resource sector, while pharmaceuticals and the food industry saw the most significant gains in production (17.8% and 6.5%
30 RUSSIA Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com
