Page 25 - UKRRptSept18

5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-5.3
-1
-3.5
-2.1
-2.8
% GDP
-7.10%
-1.50%
-2.20%
-6.30%
-8.10%
-9.00%
-4.00%
-1.10%
-3.70%
-1.90%
-2.10%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.5
-8
0.8
4.7
4.7
2
% GDP
5.40%
-10.20%
5.90%
4.80%
5.80%
10.10%
-6.10%
0.90%
5.00%
4.20%
1.50%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
6.6
3.4
0.3
2.5
3.3
1.2
2
% of GDP
5.50%
4.00%
4.20%
4.30%
3.80%
1.80%
0.20%
2.80%
3.50%
1.10%
1.50%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
19
Source: SP Advisors
5.1 External sector overview
Ukraine’s goods trade deficit declined 4.0% m/m to $599mn in June from $623mn in May, the State Statistics Service stated in its preliminary report released on August 14.
That puts Ukraine on course to end the year with a $7bn trade deficit , up from $6.3bn in 2017.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit dropped 16.2% m/m, as seasonally adjusted decline of imports (-5.1% m/m) outpaced a drop in exports (-2.6% m/m).
In the first half of 2018, the trade deficit reached $2.7bn, or a 41% y/y surge.
As incomes recovery they are sucking in imports which advanced 14.5% y/y, outpacing exports, which grew 12.7% y/y. Fuelled by increasing consumer demand, foods imports surged 28.6% y/y in the first half of 2018.
Energy imports continued picking up fast, rising 8.2% y/y in the first half of 2018 from 4% y/y in 5M18. Other important imports drivers included machinery (18.8% y/y growth) and chemicals (11.6% y/y growth).
Export growth continues to be driven by metals (31.7% y/y growth in 6M18), machinery (20.4% y/y), and timber (38.9% y/y). Meanwhile, exports of oils and crops dropped 6.9% y/y and 2.3% y/y, respectively.
Exports to the EU grew 19.2% y/y in the first half of 2018 , outpacing import growth of 12.4% y/y.
25 UKRAINE Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com