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3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s GDP picked up steam in August, increasing by 2.9% since January,
compared to 2.1% from January to July. “The economy is now in a recovery phase,” the Economy Ministry said yesterday in its monthly review. “The transition to the growth phase is predicted next year.” Last year the economy contracted by 4%. This summer, high prices for iron and steel, a bumper grain harvest and construction were locomotives for growth. Growth risks this fall are the new coronavirus and high gas prices. The Economy Ministry forecasts 2021 growth to be 4.1%.
In August 2021, almost all major economic activity, except for wholesale trade, demonstrated an increase in volume production, which was maintained at a high level in world commodity markets.
3.2 Macro outlook
GDP growth in 2021 may reach 4%. This will mean that the Ukrainian economy has bounced back after the economic decline due to the coronavirus crisis said Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal on his Facebook page. Shmyhal said that the optimistic forecast is based on a steadily growing consumer demand, an average salary that is now above $500 per month, an increase in investment to a four-year record, and a record harvest and growth in the agricultural sector. According to the draft State Budget for 2022, real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.8%, 4.7% in 2023, and 5% in 2024.
IMF estimate of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021. The IMF has decreased its forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 from 4% to 3.5%, according to the Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO) (Interfax-Ukraine). The organization
11 UKRAINE Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com