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S&P Global Platts Analytics lead analyst for two remains uncertain. Infrastructure projects
global coal Matthew Boyle suggested, however, across the country have been delayed this owing
that colder-than-expected winter temperatures to the pandemic.
could see coal and gas being used for heating in Argus Media reported that four greenfield
tandem. projects in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong
China’s push to expand gas’ share of the provinces had been delayed alongside expansion
energy mix saw the cleaner burning fuel account projects at the Qidong and Qingdao terminals.
for 8.1% of primary energy consumption in The pandemic may have also delayed the Tangshan
2019, with Beijing targeting a 15% share by 2030. LNG phase 3 and Shanghai LNG phase 2 projects.
The Asian economic giant consumed 308bn If these last two projects fail to come on stream
cubic metres of gas last year, while importing this year, then the country’s import capacity will be
127.65 bcm. limited to around 19.4mn tonnes of LNG in the
Overall gas use is expected to rise 4-6% this fourth quarter and 18.9mn tonnes in the first three
year, leading to a 10% year-on-year growth in month of 2021.
LNG imports to 65mn-67mn tonnes, according Despite such considerations, China remains in
to a recent Reuters report, citing analysts and a relatively robust supply position, having trimmed
Chinese traders. If this plays out and the trend its piped gas imports between January and August
continues over the coming years, China could in order to facilitate a 10.3% y/y increase in LNG
overtake Japan to become the world’s leading purchases. This trend could continue in the final
LNG importer by 2022. quarter, with IHS Markit senior analyst Lu Xiao
“After taking a brief hit earlier this year due saying: “[Fourth-quarter] imports will remain
to the [coronavirus] COVID-19 pandemic, Chi- robust ... as LNG is both more competitive and
na’s gas demand recovered faster than expected, flexible versus pipeline gas, despite a recent spot
driven mostly by the industrial sector that has price spike.”
recovered to 2019 levels since May,” Reuters Chinese buyers have had the luxury to choose
quoted FGE analyst Alicia Wee as saying. between more commercially attractive supplies in
Yet while imports have picked up, the coun- recent months, owing to both the country’s grow-
try’s ability to lean on its LNG terminals to ing import options and the global gas supply glut.
respond to winter demand surges is in question, The country has built more import capacity,
thanks to a series of regasification project delays. underground storage and domestic transportation
infrastructure in preparation of anther coal conver-
Projects and the pandemic sion drive. This, coupled with the fact that Beijing is
Of the eight Chinese LNG projects originally prepared to lean on coal should the need arise, will
slated to start up this year, six have been delayed likely allow China to survive the winter without a
till next year and the status of the remaining repeat of the supply pains from 2017-2018.™

Week 40 08•October•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P15