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Total sees global oil

demand peaking in 2030

Faced with gloomier prospects for oil, Total is doubling down on gas and renewables

COMMENTARY FRENCH oil major Total has joined other oil energy demand over the next three decades in all
companies predicting that peak oil demand will scenarios considered, by 10-25% in total during
arrive in the coming decade, forecasting an end the period. But this extra demand will be met by
WHAT: to consumption growth in 2030. low-carbon power.
Total has forecast in its This represents a more bullish forecast than Electricity’s share of final energy consump-
Energy Outlook that oil that of UK peer BP, which recently warned that tion will rise from 20% currently to 30-40% by
demand will peak in oil consumption would peak in the early 2020s, 2050.
2030, or possibly sooner, if it has not done so already. However, it still Total bases its predictions on two main sce-
depending on the pace of marks a major turnaround in Total’s thinking. narios which it calls Momentum and Rupture.
decarbonisation efforts. Just a few years ago Pouyanne described peak oil Both envisage Europe becoming carbon neutral
demand as merely a possibility. Consumption by 2050 – the goal set in the European Green
WHY: could reach its height sooner than 2030, Total Deal. Momentum sees countries in the rest of the
Oil will begin to cede now says, depending on the pace of decarbon- world pursuing their existing national climate
market share in transport isation efforts. targets, as well as an aggressive deployment of
to cleaner fuels, and Faced with gloomier prospects for oil, Total is proven clean technologies such as electric vehi-
the petrochemicals not only looking to expand in renewable energy cles (EVs), solar, wind and biofuel.
sector will undergo a but also gas, which it sees as having a much “Momentum goes beyond the business-as-
transformation, Total stronger outlook. Gas will have an important usual scenario; nevertheless, it fails the well-be-
says. role in decarbonisation by displacing dirtier low 2oC target globally,” Kristoffersen said.
fuels, Total argues, especially as greener gases Rupture, on the other hand, sees all countries
WHAT NEXT: are adopted. pledging net-zero targets while also envisaging
Total believes the outlook “Oil demand will reach a plateau around 2030 breakthroughs in as-yet-unproved technologies
for gas is much stronger. and then decline slowly thereafter due to trans- such as hydrogen, synthetic fuels and carbon
It plans to double its port and petrochem accelerated transforma- capture. This will enable them to be developed at
LNG sales within the next tion,” Total’s president for strategy-innovation, scale to cut emissions. As such, global tempera-
decade and focus on Helle Kristoffersen, said. “Gas will continue to ture growth will be limited at 1.5-1.7oC.
making gas greener. play a key role for decades. It has a key role to play While primary energy consumption will
in power systems, heat and in transport.” climb by 0.6% annually in Momentum, it rises
by only 0.4% per year in Rupture.
Energy outlook Solar and wind power will see a rapid expan-
Kristoffersen was discussing Total’s Energy sion in usage in both scenarios, being deployed at
Outlook report published on September 29. The a rate of more than 200 GW per year in Momen-
company forecast continued growth in global tum and over 500 GW per year in Rupture. The

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 40 08•October•2020