Page 4 - MEOG Week 03

MEOG Commentary MEOG
JCPOA heads for life-support
The three major west European countries have triggered a mechanism to try to bring the JCPOA back to life.
Iran
What:
France, Germany and the uK have triggered
a formal dispute mechanism over Iran’s breaches of parts of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Why:
The European countries hope to avoid the nuclear deal breaking down completely.
What next:
A response to the European decision is awaited from Iran.
ThE European powers which are parties to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – France, Germany and the United Kingdom (known as the E3) – have triggered a formal dispute mechanism over Iran’s breaches of key parts of the 2015 nuclear deal – a move that, unless Europe is able to bring both Tehran and Washington back into the fold – could spell its end.
Iran has gradually lifted all limits on its pro- duction of enriched uranium, which can be used not only to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons. It has said it is entitled to do so in response to sanctions reinstated by the US when it abandoned the deal in 2018.
France, Germany and the UK said they did not accept Iran’s argument. They said they were acting “in good faith with the overarching objec- tive of preserving” the deal, which saw Iran agree to limit its sensitive activities and allow the visit of inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions.
The trigger point for the latest developments was the abandonment of the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by the Trump administration in 2018. The US put in place biting sanctions against Iran a move which upended the multilateral bargain at the deal’s core, under which Iran restricted its nuclear programme and allowed rigorous inter- national monitoring of its facilities in return for economic normalisation.
With the deal’s remaining parties (France, Germany, the UK and the EU, along with Russia and China) failing to provide economic respite, Iran incrementally broke the deal’s restrictions, arguing that fewer financial dividends justified reduced compliance, a logic dismissed by the Europeans. While Tehran has ostensibly ceased observing key nuclear limits, it has not yet fol- lowed through with steps that would set off alarm bells, such as ramping up uranium enrich- ment to 20% or limiting the access of interna- tional inspectors.
President Donald Trump reinstated US sanc- tions to force Iran to negotiate a new agreement that would impose indefinite curbs on its nuclear programme and also halt its development of bal- listic missiles. These sanctions have caused Iran’s oil exports to collapse, its currency to plummet, and have sent its inflation rate soaring, but Iran has so far refused to come to the negotiating table. Iran insists that its nuclear programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes.
Treaties and agreements usually have dispute
mechanisms to allow one party to challenge another if they think the terms of the deal are being broken. But that is not the situation with the Iran nuclear agreement. The dispute mech- anism is there but the moment for invoking it may be long past.
That is because one major party, the US, has already abandoned it, re-imposing crippling economic sanctions against Tehran. For its part Iran has taken a series of steps to breach the deal’s constraints. So the deal exists but in a kind of limbo – abandoned or largely abandoned by its two most important signatories.
In invoking the dispute mechanism, the Europeans are taking the first formal step towards writing its obituary. They insist that they will stand by it for as long as it exists and that they want a better deal – one that the US can support.
But it is very hard to see Iran accepting a more restrictive agreement that will include con- straints on its missile programmes and maybe also its regional behaviour. And it is equally hard to see President Trump lifting the sanctions, not least when he believes – with protests against the regime underway – that his maximum pressure campaign is working.
The European decision to invoke the dispute process may be a final bowing to the inevitable. The nuclear agreement is in a critical condition and is slowly slipping away.
Why act now?
In a joint statement, the French, German and British foreign ministers reiterated their regret at the US decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal, and stressed that they wanted to preserve the agreement.
The ministers said their countries had worked hard to bring Iran back into compliance and had undertaken diplomatic initiatives to de-escalate tensions and to bring Iran and the US to the negotiating table for a comprehensive solution.
“The E3 remain fully committed to this dip- lomatic effort and intend to resume it as soon as conditions allow,” they added. “however, in the meantime Iran has continued to break key restrictions set out in the JCPOA. Iran’s actions are inconsistent with the provisions of the nuclear agreement and have increasingly severe and non-reversible proliferation implications.”
“We do not accept the argument that Iran is entitled to reduce compliance with the JCPOA.” The ministers said Iran’s decision on Janu- ary 5 to suspend the last key commitment on
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w w w. N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 03 22•January•2020