Page 78 - RusRPTMar21

7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
73.4
81.0
79.5
72.9
72.1
71.5
69.8
76.3
78.9
88.7
91.3
91.3
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
62.7
70.0
69.5
64.8
64.3
64.7
63.0
69.3
71.7
75.4
76.5
75.3
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
73.7
76.0
76.1
75.1
72.6
72.0
69.7
73.3
79.5
85.9
90.8
90.1
Currency (units per USD) (average)
61.8
65.5
66.7
66.1
64.6
64.7
62.9
66.5
73.8
73.6
76.2
74.3
source: CBR
In 2020-21, the ruble showed unprecedented weakness. In June 2020, before the depreciation of the Russian currency, which started in July, the average monthly ruble exchange rate was RUB69.3/$with the average Brent price at $40.8/bbl. In February 2021, the average exchange rate is RUB74.5/$, or 7.5% lower than in June 2020 – despite the fact that oil prices over the same period rose 49% on average to $60.6/bbl.
In the past, ruble devaluations show that changes in the exchange rate are reflected in prices with a 3 to 9-month lag; in the current reality characterized by suppressed domestic demand, this may take longer. This means that the inflationary effect of the exchange rate may persist through 1H21, or even longer, regardless of whether the ruble is able to recover if only partially in the near future.
Russians transfers abroad fell to $7.4bn in 2020, the least amount sent overseas since 2017, RBC reported on February 20 citing the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). That compares to a small 1.3% increase in foreign transfers in 2019. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic did not have much of an impact on international transfers the paper concluded.
The CBR measures the transfers through companies that include Western Union, Zolotaya Korona, Unistream, Contact, Blizko and Pochta Rossii
78 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com