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companies in some regions. The launch of the subsidised programme in 2020 for mortgages at a 6.5% interest rate had a notable effect on Sberbank’s mortgage portfolio growth. However, the bank is the leader on the mortgage market and has its own successful programmes, supported by the Domclick service.
Consumer loans. Starting from 1 July 2021, the CBR is going to release part of the buffer on the vintage portfolio of consumer loans. According to the preliminary estimates, that will release more than RUB100bn of capital across the sector.
However, the regulator is ready to increase risk weights for consumer loans, should it see signs of overheating. TCS is more exposed to the CBR’s regulation in consumer loans. However, we think that the bank’s high profitability will allow it to keep the capital buffer high.
Salary payment transfers. In 2022, the CBR plans to start salary payment transfers via the Faster Payment System. Currently, the regulator is focused on C2B payments.
The launch of the FPS targeted Sberbank’s dominant position on the payment market and a further expansion of the FPS product list would increase the pressure on SBER’s F&C income.
Loans restructured during pandemic. The CBR sees no systemic risks from loans restructured during the pandemic. It estimates the share of such loans in the total portfolio at 10% and considers that restructuring has peaked. Banks consider that 20- 30% of such loans will become problem loans (i.e. 2-3% of the total portfolio).
The regulator sees no problem in creating additional provisions from current profits, estimating the excessive capital across the sector at RUB6tn, or well above the potential additional provisions. From 1 April 2021, the CBR is to start making it easier to create provisions for restructured loans for large corporates, and from 1July 2021 for retail loans. However, in some regions it might keep support measures for banks for restructured SME loans. Both SBER and TCS have good asset quality and created sufficient IFRS 9 provisions in 2020, in our view. Therefore, in 2021 we expect a sharp decline in CoR (SBER guides for 140-160bp CoR, down from the 230-250bp estimated for 2020), which is set to be the main driver for an earnings recovery and the further growth in dividends.
Russians’ household savings more than doubled last year, despite a fall in disposable incomes and rise in unemployment, official statistics have shown. Mirroring the global trend of people spending less and saving more throughout the pandemic, Russians’ total savings jumped more than 2.2 times to stand at 5.2 trillion rubles ($70bn) at the end of 2020, the federal statistics
93 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com