Page 94 - RusRPTMar21

service Rosstat found. Economists say the increase in savings is a feature of pandemic-induced lockdown, when it was physically difficult to spend money. Household consumption was down 8.6% last year — a faster decline than the 3% slump in real disposable incomes. But experts cautioned that a higher savings rate should not be seen as a sign of economic strength. An increased proportion of savings being held as cash — up to 29% last year — suggests nervous expectations for the future.
President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government and the Central Bank of Russia to draw up proposals for subsidised mortgage programmes for 2021-24, including subsidised mortgages for families with two or more children. The deadline is 31 March 2021. The most recent subsidised mortgage programme, with a 6.5% rate, was introduced on 17 April 2020 and last year saw origination of RUB1tn, or over 80% of the primary market and 23% of all new mortgages. The latter set a new record, with a 50% y/y surge and a total value of RUB4.3 trillion. In January 2021, the impressive trends continued, with total mortgage origination growing 30% y/y to RUB189bn. The programme became the prime driver for the sales of commercial developers and one of the key support initiatives during these turbulent times. In the 4Q20 sales of listed developers, the share of mortgages increased a blended 10pp y/y to 65%, while the volumes released in the respective quarter varied depending on the market offer of each specific developer. Mass-market developers benefitted most from the subsidised mortgages, with PIK and Samolet showing 32% y/y and 9% y/y growth in 4Q20, respectively. The original end date of the programme was moved from 1 November 2020 to 1 July 2021, while the total cap was raised 2.1x to RUB1.85 trillion. It could be prolonged to YE21, but the initiative is opposed by CBR, and is only going to be supported by the respective regulator, if its conditions are modified. Potential updates could require the exclusion of those regions with the most aggressive residential price growth (Moscow, St Petersburg, and the Krasnodar region were mentioned) and would target the social contribution of the programme, alongside smoothing the inflation in housing prices. Beyond 2021, the CBR is only going to support selective subsidised credit measures for housing. We await more details on the timeline of the programme, its scale, the participation criteria and the prospects for their implementation.
When Russia was joining the WTO in 2012 one of the conditions pushed forward by the Russian side was to put a limit of 25% for this indicator. No risk of exceeding this limit any longer
94 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com