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Opinion
December 7, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 29
is also a sign of a certain “Kyiv bubble” of politicians/experts/journalists who focus solely on Poroshenko, accusing him of jeopardising the upcoming elections. However, this time
the situation is more than clear: Ukraine HAD to react harshly to Russia after it attacked the country openly for the first time ever and has even admitted to this attack. In this case, there can only be underreaction, no overreaction. Yes, the situation looks favourable for Poroshenko, but there are no signs suggesting that there will be no elections or that he will try to postpone them somehow.
However important the next elections are, I would risk suggesting that that is not the most worrying aspect for Ukrainians. The most discussions I saw and heard last week were about the economy, the exchange rate, and possible mobilisation. Mutual accusations from politicians are nothing new for Ukrainians but martial law is. Especially since it was introduced in a limited scope. There’s simply a lack of understanding as to what to expect next and this is what bothers people most.
The first week showed martial law brings little change in the daily routine and people quickly calmed down. The dynamics of the exchange
rate in the last week is a good indicator of the public reaction: it went up in the first days after the martial law was introduced, but a week later it has fallen back again and now the exchange rate has stabilised. The same thing was seen following the “fake news” on potential shortages that led to hoarding of certain products and the need to stock up on essentials. What little panic buying there was quickly subsided and now people have even started making funny internet memes about the shortages of salt, which proved to be nothing more than a fake story from one
of Russia’s TV shows. In fact, this explosion of memes about martial law and many anecdotes about it suggests that whatever the concerns are, Ukrainians are panicking much less than one would expect. Treating events with humour shows they really have stamina.
There are two more important aspects that de- serve to be mentioned. First is the fate of the Ukrainian sailors captured and detained by the Russians. All of them have been taken to Mos- cow and detained in the notorious Lefortovo and Matrosskaya Tishina prisons. Nothing good awaits Ukrainian sailors there. Moreover, according to Poroshenko’s press-service, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored requests for a call from the Ukrainian president. This leaves us in
an uneasy situation when most probably those 24 sailors will simply be added to the already large group of Ukrainian political prisoners in Rus-
sia. How to prevent it and get them out is really a pressing issue. In the meantime, Ukrainians are sharing lists of the captured soldiers and instruc- tions on how to write letters to them.
The second aspect is the economic implication for our Azov ports. Because of the attack and the uncertainty it brings, in the last few days
the ports there have seen almost no ships. It is not necessary to remind everyone that our Azov ports lie close to the frontline with the occupied Donbas, with Mariupol being right next to it. Fear of losing jobs and uncertainty about the future of the ports is a much bigger and more pressing issue for the region than the duration of the presidential campaign. Also, martial law will affect the contacts between people living in the occupied territories; one of the biggest fears is that it will become harder to cross the contact line and travel to and from Ukraine.
Martial law is much more than a possible game-changer for Poroshenko’s ratings and here in Ukraine it is not the only issue that
is being discussed. The Azov sea incident is
very complicated on many levels and for many Ukrainians the fear of an even bigger war is much greater than the fear of how martial law will influence the ratings of politicians. I would even say, many will look at how it will influence the economy rather than the upcoming elections. However brutal, it is quite understandable: elections are in four months, but the closest exchange point is just a few blocks away.