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October 5, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 4
Nationalists head for election victory in divided Bosnia
tite presidency are two candidates with dreams of fundamentally changing the map of Bosnia — which if realised would have unclear and poten- tially deadly consequences.
The three members of the rotating presidency represent the three main ethnic groups in Bos- nia: the 15 candidates include six candidates for the Bosniak seat, five for the Croat seat and four for the Serb seat. The most likely winners of the Serb and Croat seats are the current president of the Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, and Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia & Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) leader Dragan Covic, while for the Bosniak member the outcome of the race is less clear.
Dodik has been known for his secessionist ideas for years and is under US sanctions after he re- peatedly defied the state-level authorities. He has many times said that he will work for Republika Srpska’s secession, even if elected as a member of the state-level presidency. Covic has for years been pushing for the establishment of a third, Croat, entity and, if given more power, might try to do something in that direction.
Dodik and Covic have long supported each other’s ideas and could enter into an alliance and outvote the Bosniak member of the presidency. Analyst Jasmin Mujanovic warns that if Dodik and Covic both enter the presidency, the situation in Bosnia might worsen significantly.
“[I]f both [Dodik] and Covic end up in the state presidency, that’s a nightmare scenario for BiH,” he told bne IntelliNews.
The Dayton Peace accord that ended the 1992- 1995 war established a complex set of institutions,
hence the large number of elections taking place on October 7. Some 3.35mn Bosnians will vote for the state-level tripartite presidency, the state parliament and the assemblies in the two entities — the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska — as well as for parliament in the autonomous Brcko District and for the presidency of Republika Srpska.
Over the years there have been various attempts to alter the balance between the various levels of government, in particular Dodik’s calls for seces- sion from his power base in Republika Srpska. However, the current elections could result for the first time in the majority of those at the very top of Bosnian politics — two of the three holders of the state presidency — being in favour of fundamental changes.
Playing the ethnic card
In recent elections, politicians have successfully played on people’s fears and the strong bedrock of inter-ethnic rivalry in Bosnia, allowing the ethno- nationalist parties to prevail repeatedly. Although Bosnians will have to pick among 53 parties, 36 coalitions and 34 independent candidates, the most likely winners seem again to be the ethnic parties that have ruled the country for years:
the Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) of Bakir Izetbegovic, Covic’s HDZ and Dodik’s Serb Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD). Izetbegovic, who is currently a member of the tripartite presidency, is serving his second term and cannot run for the post again.
Apart from these parties, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which is the successor to the old League of Communists, could attract a more significant number of votes. Although it is theo- retically multi-ethnic, the party focuses on the Bosniaks, which are a majority in the country.
Another strong party is the Democratic Front (DF), which has for some time been a member of the current ruling coalition at the state-level and in the Federation.