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October 5, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 5
The Bosniak Alliance for Better Future (SBB)
of businessman Fahrudin Radoncic, which was also part of the ruling coalition for some time, is among the parties that could gain significant sup- port. Moreover, Radoncic is running for the tri- partite presidency — a race he lost in the previous two elections to SDA leader Izetbegovic.
The newly-established Independent Block led by Senad Sepic theoretically could also gain enough votes to become a factor after October 7. The bloc was created mainly by former senior members of the SDA.
Federal chaos
Meanwhile, at entity level political disagreements have led to potential chaos in the Federation as required changes to the electoral law were not adopted before the election, which could open the way for months of trouble when establishing the new House of Peoples, the upper chamber of the entity’s parliament.
In 2016, Bosnian Croat politicians filed a com- plaint with the constitutional court, arguing that the electoral mechanism to establish the House of Peoples in the Federation violates the constitu- tion. The court partially accepted this appeal and gave Bosnia's state-level parliament six months to fix problematic parts of the election law. The changes have not so far been adopted, but ac- cording to some analysts the court’s decision has removed the legal basis for establishing the up- per chamber. Without it, governments cannot be formed at either federal or state level, they claim.
Others consider there is no real legal issue, but that the uncertainty gives Covic’s HZD BiH an extra tool to use. “[T]he bigger issue is that if/ when someone tries to form a government at the Federation or state level without the HDZ, as was attempted in 2010, Covic will once again go nu- clear and attempt to obstruct every possible level and lever of government,” Mujanovic said.
“Either way, the post-October period is going to be extremely bumpy,” he added.
Meanwhile, the town of Mostar will again skip voting. Mostar is the only municipality in Bosnia where no local elections have been held since 2012, amid a dispute between Bosniaks and Croats over the composition of the city council.
In 2012, the constitutional court declared the electoral statute of the city unconstitutional
and ordered the election system to be changed. The decision was taken by the court due to complaints by Croats on the city council that
the electoral system gave Bosniaks the same number of councillors even though Croats are the majority group in the city. Mostar's city council
is currently elected from six voting units, each of them electing the same number of councillors regardless of the number of voters in the unit.
Since 2012, the municipality has been adminis- tered without a municipal council. The two main parties in the city, which are also members of the ruling coalition — the SDA and the HDZ BiH — have been trying to find a compromise on reform- ing the statute of the city for several years.
Rivals unite against Dodik
In Republika Srpska, apart from Dodik’s SNSD, the Serbian Democratic Party will also race in the election. The party, which was founded by convict- ed war criminal Radovan Karadzic before the war, was the leading political force in Republika Srpska until 2006. Hoping to gain more votes, the party again formed a coalition for the October 7 election with the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP-RS), the National Democratic Movement (NDP) and several other parties under the name Savet za Promjene (SzP), which is a member of the current state-level coalition.
According to Mujanovic, Dodik’s election to the state-level presidency might actually lead to his position being weakened if the opposition wins in Republika Srpska.
“There is a good chance he could end up on the state presidency but the opposition bloc wins either the legislature and/or the entity presidency.