Page 8 - AfrElec Week 19 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

to 295 GW. Moreover, growth will have effec- 2022 and beyond
tively doubled in three years from about 150 Looking ahead, solar PV and wind costs are
GW in 2019 to 320 GW in 2022. anticipated to remain higher in 2022 and 2023
Crucially, 2021 additions of 295 GW were than pre-pandemic levels owing to elevated
higher than the IEA’s year-ago forecast of 288.9 commodity and freight prices.
GW, demonstrating that green growth in 2021 However, their competitiveness will actually
had been higher than expected. improve due to much sharper increases in natu-
ral gas and coal prices.
Region by region Solar PV is forecast to account for 60% of the
China accounted for 46% of worldwide renew- increase in global renewable capacity in 2022,
able capacity additions, demonstrating just how with the commissioning of 190 GW, a 25% gain
much the renewables industry is dependent on on 2021.
China. Indeed, Chinese capacity additions actu- Utility-scale projects will account for almost
ally fell by 2% year on year, with onshore wind two-thirds of overall PV expansion in 2022,
and utility-scale solar PV installations 55% and mostly driven by a strong policy environment
22% lower than the record boom cycle levels in in China and the European Union pushing for
2020. faster deployment.
On the other hand, offshore wind, residential In the wind sector, the picture is more com-
solar PV and bioenergy annual additions broke plex, with onshore and offshore showing con-
new records thanks to the availability of subsi- trasting dynamics.
dies throughout 2021. For instance, offshore Following a 32% y/y decline in 2021, new
wind new installations increased almost six-fold global onshore wind installations are expected
in 2021 compared to 2020. to slightly recover and reach almost 80 GW. Off-
This slower growth in China cancelled out shore wind growth worldwide is predicted to
faster growth in the Europe and Latin America decline 40% in 2022 following the exceptional
and flat growth in the US, effectively pulling four-fold jump last year in China due to the
down global growth rates. national subsidy phase-out deadline. Despite
In Brazil, generous net metering incentives this decline, 2022 global offshore wind capacity
for distributed PV application led to a rush in additions will still double compared to 2020,
installations, while onshore wind additions thanks to the continuation of provincial incen-
accelerated because of supportive economics tives in China and the expansion in the Euro-
from bilateral contracting in the free market. pean Union. As a result, China is expected to
Latin American additions reached 18.8 GW, have the largest cumulative installed offshore
up from 9.6 GW in 2020. wind capacity globally and surpass the EU and
In Africa, renewable capacity additions UK combined by the end of this year.
resumed growth with the commissioning of In the Middle East and Africa, the push
previously awarded wind and solar PV projects for solar PV drives annual capacity additions.
in South Africa. Across Africa and the Middle Falling system costs, good resource potential,
East, additions reached 7.4 GW in 2021, up from favourable financing conditions and economies
3.8 GW in 2022 but down from 8.5 GW in 2019. of scale make solar PV projects in the Middle
East economically attractive. In sub-Saharan

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 19 12•May•2022