Page 10 - FSUOGM Week 39 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

shows simply unbelievable consumption growth producer and the largest importer,” Miller told
rates every year. The year 2021 is no exception. In the conference delegates. Gazprom plans to
the first half of the year, natural gas consumption increase exports to China to 80 bcm a year by
in China grew by 15.5%. The volume of imports 2035, according to its long-term strategy.
increased by 23.8%. This means that China’s The Eastern and Northern pipeline systems
projected consumption based on the results of are being expanded, while those in the Central
2021 will amount to 360 bcm, and the volume of corridor are due to be phased out. Standing
imports will total 160 bcm. Moreover, the annual behind Nord Stream 2 is another new set of pipe-
volume of gas imports is expected to reach 300 lines to feed into this important export route. The
bcm as early as by 2023, in just 15 years. The fig- new Bovanenkovo-Ukhta and Ukhta-Torzhok
ure is just staggering,” Miller told delegates. pipelines were completed in 2018 with a capac-
Gazprom can easily increase deliveries ity of 115 bcm per year and were built to evacuate
via the Power of Siberia route but also from new gas from the super-giant Bovanenkovskoye
Sakhalin by a spur to China from the Sakha- field, which is part of the Yamal complex, and
lin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok line. But a real send it on to Germany via Nord Stream 1 and 2.
game-changer could be a mooted pipeline to There may well be a lot of politics involved
China from Western Siberia via Mongolia that in the decision to build Nord Stream 2 and cut
could for the first time create an alternative to Ukraine out of the gas delivery loop to Europe.
supplies to Europe for Russian gas in Western However, there are a lot of business reasons too.
Siberia. The falling production at the traditional gas
“The [Chinese] contract is a unique one. It fields in West Siberia, the ageing pipeline sys-
is the world’s largest contract for gas supplies: tem that supports it and most importantly, the
38 bcm of gas for 30 years. Having signed this anticipated shrinking demand for gas in the EU
contract, China has become one of our big- all make Europe a less interesting market. The
gest consumers in a flash. In fact, today we can future for Russian gas lies in the east and in the
say that the co-operation between Russia and meantime Gazprom is trying to sell what gas it
China is the co-operation between the largest can to the west as profitably as it can. ™

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 39 29•September•2021